Warriors Analysis

Why West standings give Warriors reason to keep believing

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SAN FRANCISCO – Three months into a 2024-25 NBA season in which every hint of momentum hit a brick wall, the Warriors take comfort in knowing they exist in a space where their unwavering confidence is not irrational.

The Western Conference is where four teams are certified, three are dismissed and the other eight – which includes the Warriors – can easily find reasons to believe.

“I bring it up every week,” coach Steve Kerr said Monday after practice. “And I remind the guys how many teams out there in the history of the NBA have climbed up the ladder after slow starts. When we played Boston [in the 2022 NBA Finals], for example, they were .500 team in January. And they flipped it. They found their groove.”

Those Celtics were 23-22 through their first 45 games before going 28-9 over their final 37 games to snag the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Warriors are 22-23 through 45 games. They enter this week in 11th place in the West and searching for a groove they haven’t seen in two months.

But they are grateful to be in the West, among a glut of teams that know their place in the standings can change dramatically in a few days. The fifth-place Los Angeles Lakers are five-and-a-half games ahead of the 12th-place San Antonio Spurs and four-and-a-half games in front of the Warriors.

The Warriors have three games on the schedule this week, with the Utah Jazz (dismissed) on Tuesday, the Oklahoma City Thunder (certified) on Wednesday and the Phoenix Suns (a believer) on Friday.

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“It’s an opportunity,” second-year guard Brandin Podziemski said. “It’s a good place to be. Now, at this point of the season, nobody expects us to do much, just based on what our record is.”

The Warriors have been more prey than predator. But three wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves (believer), two wins over the Memphis Grizzlies (certified) and wins over the Houston Rockets (certified), the Thunder and the defending champion Celtics suggest there is considerable potential for progress.

Golden State is in the middle of a stretch during which it played nine consecutive games without boarding a flight. Eight games at Chase, and one at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. Losing three of the first five has increased the urgency to repair the season. Winning three this week and closing the homestand with a victory over the Orlando Magic next week would generate more momentum than the Warriors have enjoyed since November.

But they must do it without forwards Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga. Green, recovering from a left calf strain, is not expected to play this week but could return next week. It’s conceivable that Kuminga, who sustained a “significant” right ankle sprain on Jan. 4, won’t return until after the Feb. 16-21 NBA All-Star break.

It’s difficult to generate momentum with two key players out, but the rest of the roster is relatively healthy and realizes the season is slowly slipping away. It’s not too late, but there is much less season ahead than behind.

“Guys are starting to get healthy; Dray and JK are the only two we’re missing now,” Podziemski said. “It’s a good opportunity. We going to have some home games to finish up January and go on the road for much of February. There’s a great chance.”

Golden State’s goal this week is to replicate its performances in the week of Nov. 10, 2024, which concluded with three wins against quality teams. The Warriors won at Oklahoma City and then came home to beat the Dallas Mavericks and Grizzlies.

The Warriors haven’t had a perfect week since, nor have they since won three in a row. If they achieve that this week, they’ll be at least temporarily back in the middle of the Western Conference playoff race rather than glancing up from below.

“I still think our team can find its best self,” Kerr said. “The best version of us, I think, is ahead of us. Part of the motivation comes from [knowing] we're not that far away from being a solid 5- or 6-seed.

“But we got to do something about it. We got to get to work.”

The Warriors can’t get to fifth or sixth in the West this week. Moving from 11th to as high as seventh by the weekend is possible. But, yes, they’ve got to get to work – at a level that has been elusive.

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