The NFL playoff picture has cleared up and muddied all at the same time -- particularly in the NFC -- entering the final week of the 2023 regular season.
We know the 49ers own the NFC's No. 1 seed, and the bye week and home-field advantage that come with it. We also know the Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams have clinched playoff berths, though their respective seeding remains in question.
But we don't know who will win the NFC South -- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons all have a chance -- nor who will claim the NFC's final wild-card spot, with the Bucs, Saints, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings all in the mix in various scenarios.
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If the season ended today, these would be the NFC's wild-card round matchups:
- No. 7 Packers at No. 2 Cowboys
- No. 6 Rams at No. 3 Lions
- No. 5 Eagles at No. 4 Bucs
But the season doesn't end today, and with important games to play Sunday, the 49ers will be keenly interested in how the seeding shakes out. That's because, as the No. 1 seed, San Francisco would host the lowest-seeded wild-card round winner in the divisional round on either Jan. 20 or Jan. 21.
So, without further ado, here are the NFC Week 18 playoff scenarios. Yes, they're as complicated as they look ...
San Francisco 49ers
NFC Week 18 playoff scenarios
Already clinched
— San Francisco 49ers (12-4): NFC West title, No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage
— Detroit Lions (11-5): NFC North title
— Dallas Cowboys (11-5): Playoff berth
— Philadelphia Eagles (11-5): Playoff berth
— Los Angeles Rams (9-7): Playoff berth
Individual clinch scenarios
Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
Clinch NFC South title with:
-- Win over New Orleans Saints + Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
Clinch NFC East title with:
-- Win over Washington Commanders OR
-- Tie vs. Commanders + Philadelphia Eagles tie vs. New York Giants OR
-- Eagles loss
Green Bay Packers (8-8)
Clinch playoff berth with:
-- Win over Chicago Bears OR
-- Tie vs. Bears + Seattle Seahawks loss or tie vs. Arizona Cardinals + Saints loss or tie vs. Falcons OR
-- Tie vs. Bears + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss OR
-- Tie vs. Bears + Seahawks tie + Buccaneers loss or tie OR
-- Minnesota Vikings loss or tie vs. Detroit Lions + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss OR
-- Vikings loss or tie + Seahawks loss + Saints loss
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Clinch playoff berth with:
-- Win over Lions + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Buccaneers loss OR
-- Win over Lions + Packers loss + Seahawks loss + Saints loss
New Orleans Saints (8-8)
vs. Atlanta (7-9); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Clinch NFC South title with:
-- Win over Falcons + Buccaneers loss or tie OR
-- Tie vs. Falcons + Buccaneers loss
Clinch playoff berth with:
-- Win over Falcons + Seahawks loss or tie + Packers loss or tie OR
-- Tie vs. Falcons + Seahawks loss + Packers loss
Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Clinch NFC East title with:
-- Win over Giants + Cowboys loss or tie OR
-- Tie vs. Giants + Cowboys loss
Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
at Arizona (4-12); Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
Clinch playoff berth with:
-- Win over Cardinals + Packers loss or tie OR
-- Tie vs. Cardinals + Packers loss + Buccaneers loss or tie OR
-- Tie vs. Cardinals + Packers loss + Saints loss or tie
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
at Carolina (2-14); Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
Clinch NFC South title with:
-- Win over Panthers OR
-- Tie vs. Panthers + Saints loss or tie
Clinch playoff berth with:
-- Tie vs. Panthers + Seahawks loss + Packers loss or tie
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