OAKLAND -- After sprinkling several apathetic moments into their five-game dismissal of the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs, the Warriors won’t have that luxury when they meet the New Orleans Pelicans in Round 2.
Though the Warriors are better and more experienced, the Pelicans are unquestionably the hotter team.
Which makes Game 1, on Saturday, a statement game. The Warriors want to remind folks why they’re defending champs. And shocking them is the best way for the Pelicans to prove they’re legit after a stunning sweep of Portland in the first round.
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There are factors that will dictate both the closeness and length of this Western Conference Semifinal series. Here are five keys, in no particular order, to the Warriors winning in six or fewer games:
Stephen Curry could be available for Game 1 and, barring a setback, will be ready for Game 2. No player returns from injury with a greater vengeance. Returning last Dec. 28 after an 11-game absence, he scored 38 points in 26 minutes on 76.5-percent shooting. Returning March 23 after a six-game absence, he totaled 29 points (55.6-percent shooting) and seven rebounds in 25 minutes. He has missed 15 games. If he’s able to average 25 points over 30-plus minutes while shooting above 50 percent, look out.
2) TRANSITION DEFENSE
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New Orleans scorched the Blazers on the break, averaging 16.8 points, second among all playoff teams. That was a big factor in the Pelicans shooting 52.2 percent from the field to lead all playoff teams. Rajon Rondo is thriving in transition, triggering a devastating fast break that can conclude with lobs to Anthony Davis or triples from Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic or ex-Warrior Ian Clark. If the Warriors don’t consistently get back on D, they’re inviting trouble.
As wonderful as Klay Thompson was in the first round, Jrue Holiday was downright devastating as the Pelicans smoked the Blazers. He put Damian Lillard under a blanket on one end, and dropped 27.8 points per game on the other. They are the best two-way shooting guards in the NBA and even though they won’t be exclusively matched up they’ll be highly influential to outcomes. If Thompson is more impressive, the Warriors will be almost impossible to beat.
4) THE KD/AD CONFRONTATION
There are some mirror qualities in what can be distilled to matchup nightmare vs. matchup nightmare. Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis are long and fluid and able to score at all three levels, but Davis is the more consistently impactful defender. They will see plenty of each other but by no means will they be exclusively assigned to each other. If Davis tries the follow Durant, it’ll open up the paint. If he doesn’t, some poor Pelican is going to get grilled. Offsetting Davis won’t be easy, but the Warriors gain a distinct advantage if Durant can do it.
5) THE RONDO FACTOR
As he has been for every team he has played for, Rondo is the quarterback and thermostat for the Pelicans. When he’s hot and engaged, with the right supporting cast, he and his teammates will prosper. When he’s cold and cranky, he can drag his team down. He was marvelous against Portland, orchestrating tempo and even dropping triples as a bonus. He’s most dangerous as a driver, so the Warriors will make him shoot. The key is not letting him get comfortable running the show.