The 49ers face the NFL's biggest rest disadvantage in 2024, marking the second consecutive season they have done so.
It is understandable that the NFL wants to draw more viewers to its prime-time matchups, but it comes at a cost to a few teams and more so for the 49ers.
Sharp Football Analysis' Warren Sharp analyzes the NFL schedule every year and goes into great detail how the 49ers are getting the short end of the stick in back-to-back seasons.
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Each team and its fanbase often complain about the disadvantages of their schedules but Sharp explains it from an unbiased perspective.
“For the second straight year, the 49ers have been hosed based on the timing of their games,” Sharp wrote. “Last year, their net rest edge ranked #32 with a -20-day margin. They had four games with a net rest edge of three days or worse. They won just two of those four despite being favored in all four games by an average of over 10 points. And they covered the spread in just one of the four.
“This year, unfairly, they’re back where they were in 2023.”
Coach Kyle Shanahan claimed Tuesday he has not done a deep dive into the 49ers' schedule, but was aware of facing multiple teams after their bye weeks. He took a neutral stance on the situation.
San Francisco 49ers
“I know what our preference would be,” Shanahan said. “But you never know whether that affects you or not until you get there. And there’s lots of things that go into the year, lots of things that can hurt you on the schedule. I’d rather it be a different way, but there’s a lot of things that could be worse too.”
But even at a glance, there are a few obvious places where the 49ers face an unfair disadvantage.
After playing in two Thursday night games in 2023, the 49ers again are one of the six teams scheduled for two short-week prime-time matchups. While playing on a short week seems like a responsibility shared throughout the NFL, six teams — Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans are not scheduled to appear on Thursday Night Football at all.
The one benefit for teams playing on Thursday night is the “mini-bye” they receive before their next opponent. But that won't be much of an advantage for the 49ers in the middle of the season, when they host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6 on Oct. 10. Ten days later, San Francisco welcomes a well-rested Kansas City Chiefs team, who have a full bye in Week 6 and an extra four days of rest before heading to Santa Clara.
The 49ers will face three additional opponents coming off of their bye weeks, including the Dallas Cowboys in Week 8 and the Seahawks in Week 11, with both contests taking place at Levi’s Stadium.
The third team the 49ers will meet coming off a bye week is the Buffalo Bills, who will enjoy their bye in Week 12 before host San Francisco for a chilly "Monday Night Football" contest on Dec. 1 in Northeast New York.
“I promise I didn’t really think about it,” Shanahan said. “[Corry Rush, VP of football communications] said we have four of them coming off a bye. I was like, ‘Isn’t that what we had last year?’ So maybe we had less, I don’t know what we had last year, but I feel like we had a lot last year too. So I try not to think much of it.”
With all of the disadvantages they faced last season, the 49ers still ended the year as the NFC's No. 1 seed and made it to Super Bowl LVIII, where they lost to the Chiefs. Kansas City, who faced a similar challenge in regards to rest, also did nothing to help prove that the NFL’s alleged lack of equity has enough affect to alter a team’s destiny.
Still, when looking at how each team performed in games where the rest differential was significant, it is clear that it had a an effect on individual games, but without evidence of the differential making an obvious impact on the overall season, the NFL is not apt to make any changes.