Blake Snell

Why signing Snell does, does not make sense for Giants

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With the Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto pursuits in the rearview mirror -- much to the Giants' chagrin -- San Francisco will shift its focus to its remaining free-agent targets.

Who might that be? Well, reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell seems like the next obvious target.

Or does it?

Here's why pursuing Snell does and does not make sense for the Giants.

Why it makes sense

Snell began the 2023 offseason as the best proven free-agent pitcher on the market and remains available due to the stagnation caused by Ohtani and Yamamoto's respective free agencies.

The 31-year-old is a two-time Cy Young Award winner and is fresh off a dominant 2023 season with the San Diego Padres in which he posted a 14-9 record with a 2.25 ERA in 180 innings pitched and 234 strikeouts.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has made it clear the team is looking to add a top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with ace Logan Webb and Snell is the only free agent remaining who fits the bill.

He's a certified ace and would give the Giants an elite one-two punch atop the rotation after Snell and Webb finished first and second respectively for the Cy Young last season.

Snell also played for current Giants manager Bob Melvin in San Diego. That familiarity, plus the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park and the Giants' desperation for a big move makes this a pretty obvious fit.

Why it does not

The biggest knock against Snell is his command. He led all MLB pitchers in walks surrendered last season with 99, which was 30 more free passes than his next-highest season total at any point throughout his eight-year MLB career.

Yet he still won the Cy Young.

Despite posting a very impressive 2.25 ERA, Snell finished the season with a 3.44 FIP (Fielding Independent of Pitching), which might signal a regression toward the mean is on the horizon.

For as dominant as Snell was in 2023 and for how good of a pitcher he still should be from here on out, he doesn't fit the typical mold of a Giants' free-agent pitching target.

Snell is represented by superagent Scott Boras, who likely will push for his client to land the largest contract in terms of average annual value by a free-agent pitcher this offseason, beating Yamamoto's mark of $27 million per season.

That shouldn't be an issue for the Giants at all. San Francisco has enough financial flexibility to afford multiple high-AAV contracts. What could be an issue, however, is the contract length.

The Giants have made their philosophy regarding free-agent pitchers abundantly clear over the years. At 31 years old, a contract longer than four or five years for Snell goes against every fiber of the Giants' being.

This philosophy averted the Giants from a potentially disastrous contract for Carlos Rodón last offseason but also led to Kevin Gausman slipping through their fingers two offseasons ago in what arguably is the organization's biggest mistake under Zaidi.

What path would signing Snell take them down?

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