The Sharks haven’t started a season like this in some time, and we’re not just talking about their record.
Yes, San Jose is 2-2-0 after four games, a record it has not started a season with since 2009-10, the last time the team acquired an Ottawa Senators star at the beginning of training camp (Dany Heatley). But the Sharks have started the season with better records -- they won at least three of four to start a season from the lockout-shortened 2013 campaign through 2016-17 -- and a worse one as recently as last year (1-3-0).
What we are referring to are San Jose’s underlying numbers. Adjusting for score effects and any venue biases, the Sharks ranked first or second in the following five-on-five, puck-possession metrics entering Wednesday, per Natural Stat Trick: Corsi-for percentage (shot attempts), fenwick-for percentage (unblocked shot attempts), shots-for percentage, scoring chances-for percentage, and high-danger chances-for percentage.
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SIGN UP HERE When you compare to previous seasons, San Jose is off to its best start by those measures through four games. Here is how the Sharks’ start this season stacks up in each metric since 2007, when the NHL first started tracking shot data.
| Category | Percentage | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SVA CF% | 65.82 |
1 |
| SVA FF% | 66.77 | 1 |
| SVA SCF% | 65.35 | 2 |
| SVA HDCF% | 71.22 | 1 |
So, why hasn’t San Jose’s territorial edge translated to one on the scoreboard? As is often the case, the difference comes down to finishing and goaltending. Yet, before Tuesday night’s 8-2 shellacking of the Philadelphia Flyers, the Sharks had been outscored 6-3 at even strength. After Tuesday, that margin is still only 8-6.
Once again adjusting for score effects and venue bias, the Sharks are 19th in five-on-five shooting percentage (6.78 percent), 20th in save percentage (.906), and 22nd in PDO (.974), according to Natural Stat Trick. As you might have guessed, those numbers are on the low side of San Jose’s four-game starts in the last decade-plus.
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| Category | Percentage | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| SVA SH% | 6.78 | 9 |
| SVA SV% | 90.62 | 9 |
| SVA PDO | 97.4 | 7 |
Tuesday night brought plenty of regression to the mean, and showed what the Sharks are capable of when everything’s clicking at even strength. They attempted nearly 60 percent of the shots, generated 60 percent of the scoring chances, scored on almost 13 percent of their shots, and didn’t allow an even-strength goal.
Now, there are some important caveats to consider when examining San Jose’s start. For one, four games is a very small sample size, and it’s unlikely the Sharks will be able to keep up this pace over an 82-game season. Since 2007, no team has exceeded the 60-percent mark of any of those score- and venue-adjusted metrics over the course of a full season by Natural Stat Trick’s count.
Plus, the Sharks still have considerable work to do on special teams. The power play scored twice and influenced another goal Wednesday, but the penalty kill gave up two more and San Jose has allowed high-danger chances on the penalty kill at a higher rate than any other team so far.
But the majority of the game is played five-on-five, and the Sharks are controlling play at even strength to start the season better than they have in the last decade or so. That’s an encouraging sign, especially considering defenseman Erik Karlsson has been with San Jose for less than a month.
If their five-on-five finishing and goaltending follows suit, the Sharks will be in a strong position for an early-season push up the standings.