- Editor's note: Sheng Peng will be a regular contributor to NBC Sports California's Sharks coverage for the 2021-22 season. You can read more of his coverage on San Jose Hockey Now, listen to him on the San Jose Hockey Now Podcast, and follow him on Twitter at @Sheng_Peng.
“If I do get asked, he's one guy that I think should be a Shark.”
That’s what Sharks captain Logan Couture volunteered about pending unrestricted free agent Alexander Barabanov after San Jose’s 4-1 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks. Barabanov earned an assist in his first game back since he suffered an upper-body injury on April 14.
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“If I had my choice, yes,” head coach Bob Boughner said about keeping Barabanov. “He's a guy that provides offense. This is a team that can use that now.”
The 27-year-old has 10 goals and 28 assists in 66 games. Entering Sunday's game against Las Vegas, those 38 points are good for fifth on the Sharks. San Jose, by the way, is 30th in the league in goals.
The challenge with re-signing Barabanov? There aren’t a lot of past recent signings to compare him to.
The Russian winger is an impending UFA without a long-term track record of NHL scoring – so basically, what’s fair value for an unproven late-bloomer like Barabanov?
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Going back five years, these were the best free agency comps that I could find for Barabanov. These were my parameters: Player will be a UFA, with two or fewer “productive” seasons under his belt.
KHL import Barabanov made his NHL debut last season and has totaled 45 points in 75 games over two seasons with the Sharks. Let’s toss out his 13 mostly-unproductive games with the Toronto Maple Leafs, who traded him to San Jose for Antti Suomela at the trade deadline last year.
Barabanov has averaged 0.6 Points Per Game in teal.
None of these comps are perfect, by the way: For example, Pius Suter is used on both power play and penalty kill, while Robby Fabbri, Micheal Ferland, and Brett Connolly, like Barabanov, were/are used exclusively on the power play on special teams.
Before his new contract, Suter had only 55 NHL games to his name, while Fabbri, Ferland, and Connolly had plenty of NHL experience before their “breakout” years. Meanwhile, Connolly surely made money off being an integral part of the 2018 Stanley Cup winning Washington Capitals.
Fabbri’s Points Per Game were calculated from the time that he was traded to Detroit to when he inked his new extension.
Based off this data, we might expect Barabanov’s new AAV to come in at about four-to-five percent of next year’s $82.5 million dollar cap. That’s $3.3 to $4.125 million AAV.
My guess is, Barabanov gets two to four years.
And based off last night, Barabanov will be well worth it.
“You saw that goal that Timo scored, that was because of Barbie’s hard work," Boughner said. "I think chasing pucks down and battling that 50-50 puck and Timo getting in to clean it up, that’s what Barbie does. He’s not a big guy but he puts his nose into hard areas. He’s got a lot of compete in his game. And he’s not 100 percent right now playing, [but] he showed up.”
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The captain echoed the coach, calling Barabanov “very skilled, poised with the puck. Protects it very well for a smaller guy."
“I think he thinks of the game at a high level," Couture continued. "He's not overly fast but he gets into the right spots.
“Without him the past few games, we can tell when he's not playing. I think that's the biggest compliment to him. We're happy to have him.”