Week 14 burning questions: When will 49ers find franchise QB?
With four weeks left in the NFL season, many teams have started to turn their attention to 2021 after disappointing years.The 49ers (5-7) are about to become the sixth Super Bowl loser in the last 11 seasons to miss the playoffs the following year. Now, they must evaluate their entire roster as they look to rebound next season and vault back into the Super Bowl picture. That starts with the quarterback position and Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers got an up-close look at the new wave of NFL quarterbacks when Josh Allen torched them on Monday night. They'd love to get in on the fun, but will they be able to find a franchise quarterback this offseason?Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Eagles have their own quarterback conundrum after benching Carson Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts. The New England Patriots (6-6) still are in the playoff hunt, but Cam Newton doesn't appear to be the long-term post-Tom Brady answer. How will those two teams handle their future at quarterback?Let's dig into four of the biggest questions surrounding the NFL as we head into Week 14.
Verdict: Jury is out
Last year it was the Tennessee Titans. In 2018, it was the Jacksonville Jaguars. In 2015, the Indianapolis Colts crashed the AFC Championship Game party.
Outside of a few chalk moments, the AFC title has seen a favorite (normally the Patriots, but now the Chiefs) face an unexpected foe with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
All season, we've been searching for this year's AFC party crasher. Would it be the Titans again? Could Philip Rivers put together three good weeks and deliver the Colts to the doorstep? What about the Raiders?
But after the Cleveland Browns strolled into Nissan Stadium and whipped the Titans on Sunday to improve to 9-3, it appears they might be the mystery AFC team to face the Chiefs in the AFC title.
It's been easy to dismiss the Browns this season. Most of their wins have come against the bottom of the NFL, and they were pasted by the Ravens and Steelers.
But if Baker Mayfield (who threw for four first-half touchdowns against the Titans) is back to his dangerous ways and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are healthy, why can't it be the Browns?
As of right now, Cleveland owns the No. 5 seed in the AFC and would face either the Titans or Colts in the wild-card round. Those are two teams with glaring flaws who the Browns have beaten this season. I see no reason, if Mayfield is right, that they can't do it again.
The divisional round is where the Browns' road gets tricky. If the Chiefs overtake the Steelers for the AFC's top seed, then there's a good chance, depending on the wild-card outcomes, that the Browns would be the lowest remaining seed and have to face Kansas City in the divisional round. That, of course, is where their road would end.
But if the Browns' divisional road takes them to Pittsburgh or Buffalo, then the AFC title game would be within their grasp. The Steelers have lost a couple of important players on defense and are leaking oil. Josh Allen and the Bills are electric on offense, but the young quarterback has a tendency to turn the ball over, which the Browns could exploit.
If I had to put my money on an AFC title game matchup, it would be Buffalo at Kansas City. But the Browns are lurking. They have a solid defense led by Myles Garrett and head coach Kevin Stefansky leans on his running game and knows how to put Mayfield in a position to succeed.
If Mayfield is back, the Browns just might be the sleeper team that springs a few upset en route to a tilt with the Chiefs.
Verdict: Sell
After 12 games, the Eagles finally decided it was time for Carson Wentz to hit the pine in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles are in a challenging position with Wentz, No doubt. The four-year, $128 million extension he signed in 2019 kicks in next season. It would cost the Eagles $59 million in dead cap to cut him in the offseason. That's not happening.
So, are the Eagles stuck with Wentz for the next two seasons even if Hurts wows over the next few weeks? Well, no.
Let's start with the obvious. There's no guarantee that Hurts will succeed. He came in during the second half of the loss to the Green Bay Packers and looked OK after Wentz stunk up the place for two-and-a-half quarters. He still is a raw quarterback prospect with mechanical issues to work through. He needed more time to sit and learn before being thrown into the NFL fire.
Conventional wisdom would dictate that the Eagles want Wentz not to get killed behind a lousy offensive line for the next four weeks, clear his mind and head into 2021 in a quarterback competition with Hurts. One Wentz very well could win.
But even if Hurts dazzles and the Eagles want him to be their guy, Philadelphia is by no means doomed to have Wentz on its bench for the next two seasons.
There are quarterback-needy teams out there and a few who could help the Eagles out of their predicament.
The only way for the Eagles to salvage anything for 2021 is to trade Wentz before March 20. That would make the dead cap hit and Wentz's cap number a wash, resulting in a savings of $850K.
Possible landing spots for Wentz include the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Detroit Lions and 49ers.
The Colts are the most likely option. The Colts are projected to have the most salary cap room next season and Wentz had his MVP-adjacent season when Colts head coach Frank Reich was the Eagles' offensive coordinator.
The most likely outcome has the Eagles using these final four games to see if Wentz or head coach Doug Pederson is the problem and move on from one of them.
If the answer is Pederson, it's easy to see the Eagles seeing Wentz as salvageable under a different regime and having a quarterback competition in 2021.
But if it's Wentz, expect the Eagles to move him before the third day of the NFL year to try and recoup some value for a 28-year-old quarterback who seems to have lost his shine.
Verdict: Buy
This just makes too much sense, right?
If the 49ers decide to move on from Garoppolo this offseason -- a decision that can save them $24 million -- a trip back to Foxboro feels like the ideal spot for Garoppolo.
We know Bill Belichick loved Garoppolo and wanted him to take over for Tom Brady, extending the Patriots' dynasty well into the 2020s. But Brady's downturn never came and Belichick was forced to deal the apprentice.
Without Brady, the Patriots find themselves in quarterback limbo. They signed Cam Newton to a one-year contract, but are by no means tied to him being the long-term answer at quarterback. After a solid start to the season, Newton's production has tailed off. Whether it's due to his bout with COVID-19, past injuries, or other issues with the Patriots' offense, it's clear Newton isn't right and I don't expect him back in Foxboro next season.
Garoppolo knows The Patriot Way. He's comfortable with Belichick and is well-versed in offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' system. Tell me this isn't happening.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has said he expects Garoppolo back in 2021. There's no reason not to at this point. The 49ers will review the position and Garoppolo remains a good option if something better doesn't arise.
That's a sticky situation for the 49ers to be in. When healthy, Garoppolo has been good. But his health remains a question mark and his ceiling as an NFL passer has hamstrung Shanahan as a play-caller.
I'd say it's 50/50 that Garoppolo returns to the 49ers next season. If he's gone, you might as well start selling those Garoppolo No. 10 jerseys at 1 Patriot Place the minute he hits the market.
Verdict: Doubtful
The 49ers find themselves in a tough spot as they start to look to 2021.
They'd love to find the next version of Kyler Murray or Josh Allen, two quarterbacks who have ripped them up this year. Coach Kyle Shanahan discussed how he evaluates quarterbacks Wednesday and signaled he's open to a dual-threat quarterback.
Jimmy Garoppolo is under contract and is 24-8 as a starter. But the 49ers can cut him for minimal penalty if they find a true franchise quarterback.
Here's the 49ers' problem: They currently sit at 5-7 and are slated to have the No. 15 pick in the draft. They have at least two winnable games left on their schedule, so let's say they finish at 6-10 or 7-9, putting them in the low teens in the draft.
There are two, maybe three franchise quarterbacks in this class and three quarterbacks who would be classified as a gamble.
The New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos all would fit into the "quarterback need" category. Most are slated to pick ahead of the 49ers.
Let's say Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance are gone when the 49ers go on the clock. Are they going to reach for Mac Jones or Kyle Trask, two quarterbacks who are Heisman Trophy front-runners but might have limited NFL upside? Those are the gambles that set franchises back. Think Washington rolling the dice on Dwayne Haskins or the Giants drafting Daniel Jones. Those are two quarterbacks drafted way above their grade because of need, and now both teams still are searching for a franchise quarterback (whether the Giants will admit it or not).
At that point, it would better serve the 49ers to draft a cornerback or an interior offensive lineman and either wait to draft Jones or Trask in Round 2 if they fall, or wait another year to find the right guy.
That leaves them with bringing back Garoppolo (still likely) or looking to the trade market for a guy like Matt Stafford or Matt Ryan, two talented veterans on the back-half of their careers.
The 49ers would love to get in on the NFL's new wave of dual-threat quarterbacks. But that might not come in 2021. In fact, it probably won't.
