Schrock's Week 16 takeaways: 49ers' biggest decision isn't QB
With one week remaining in the 2020 NFL regular season, the playoff picture and offseason focus is coming into view.The 49ers scratched and clawed behind Robert Saleh's defensive masterpiece to upset the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16. That loss has Kliff Kingsbury's future with the Cardinals in doubt, as Arizona now must beat a Jared Goff-less Rams team in Week 17 to avoid a catastrophic collapse and make the playoffs.Saleh's Mona Lisa was an exclamation point on his tenure with the 49ers, one that almost certainly will end after Week 17. Saleh will get the head-coaching job he has earned and Kyle Shanahan will have another offseason decision added to his checklist --- one more important than the one that gets all the headlines.Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa after he was ineffective against a porous Raiders secondary and let Ryan Fitzpatrick turn on the magic to keep their postseason hopes alive and eliminate the Raiders from playoff contention. The Silver and Black's latest failure put a capper on a lost year that will leave them with even more questions than when the season began.Here's what we learned from Week 16 of the NFL season.
Eight weeks ago, the Cardinals were flying high. They had just upset the Seattle Seahawks to move to 5-2 and had the NFL's top-ranked offense at 419 yards per game.
Things were good in the Valley of the Sun, and Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray were getting the last laugh. A lot can change in eight weeks.
On Saturday, the Cardinals faced the most critical game for their franchise in half a decade. They entered in control of their playoff fate. It was a game they should have won. It meant more to them than a 49ers team that has been ravaged by injuries and spent the last month away from home. But the Cardinals were lifeless in a 20-12 loss, and now questions about Kingsbury's long-term fit with Murray have to be raised.
Since the Cardinals' Week 7 win over the Seahawks, Arizona's offense is averaging 375 yards and 25 points per game. Over their last six games, those numbers have dropped to 351.1 and 22.8. Those numbers would have the Cardinals ranked 19th and 23rd in the NFL respectively.
Kingsbury's offense hasn't had a true identity in his first two NFL seasons. He started the 2019 season by having Murray chuck it all over the field, but the Cardinals finished with the No. 4 rushing attack in the NFL behind Murray and Kenyan Drake.
The Cardinals' offense has put up a lot of yards in large part due to Murray's ability to extend and create broken plays. Kingsbury's pre-snap motion and misdirection usage is a plus, but the innovation hasn't been there. DeAndre Hopkins set the Cardinal's franchise record for receptions this year and did so by playing almost all of his snaps in the backside iso spot.
Kingsbury's game management has been questionable at best and his in-game play-calling leaves a lot to be desired. The Cardinals wouldn't have Murray if not for Kingsbury -- another coach likely would have stuck with Josh Rosen and drafted Nick Bosa at No. 1.
But now that they have their franchise signal-caller, they have to decide if Kingsbury is the right guy to get Murray to his ceiling. Kingsbury is a young NFL head coach, but he has to look in the mirror and evolve quickly or else he could be shown the door.
If the Cardinals lose to the Rams, who will be starting John Wolford at quarterback, and miss the playoffs, I would be hard-pressed to find a logical reason to keep Kingsbury. I think he's got potential as a head coach, but the Cardinals can't waste Murray's developmental years waiting for Kingsbury to get with the program. Sunday could be make or break for Coach Cool.
The NFL draft isn't an exact science. Scouts and teams whiff all the time. That's why Lamar Jackson was drafted at 32nd overall and Josh Rosen went at No. 10.
Everyone thought the Miami Dolphins hit the 2020 draft jackpot when Joe Burrow skyrocketed up draft boards and went at No. 1 overall -- allowing Tua Tagovailoa, the presumptive No. 1 pick before Burrow's rise -- to fall to Miami at No. 5.
The Dolphins, who never even entertained tanking under coach Brian Flores, didn't have to tank to get Tua. He fell to them.
With his rookie season almost in the books, it's clear Tagovailoa is more of a project than originally believed and the Dolphins might end up with the fourth-best QB in the class, also known as the Sam Darnold award.
On Saturday, Tagovailioa went up against a Raiders secondary that has been torched by everyone from Patrick Mahomes to the old lady playing the slots at Caesar's this season. It was an opportunity for Tagaovailoa to have a career day.
He didn't.
Tagovailoa went 17-for-22 for just 94 yards and a touchdown before being pulled in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick with the Dolphins' playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Fitzpatrick went 9-for-13 for 182 yards in less than a quarter of action and led the Dolphins to a miraculous 26-25 win.
Tagovailoa is 6-2 as the Dolphins' starting quarterback. He's also thrown for over 300 yards just once, and more than 250 yards twice. He ranks 12th in the AFC in passer rating. He has only 14 more passing yards than Dwayne Haskins and 464 more than Jalen Hurts, who has only started three games.
Tagovailoa has been a game manager for all intents and purposes. Flores can say he's done some nice things, but he almost cost Miami a playoff berth because he was unable to attack the Raiders' ghastly secondary down the field.
It's a tough spot for the Dolphins, who will have the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft thanks to the Houston Texans. They aren't going to draft a quarterback. Tua is their guy. They stockpiled draft picks to build around him.
And yet, he currently looks like a left-handed version of Alex Smith, a guy who can take care of the ball and win games when everything around him is working.
Justin Herbert, who the Los Angeles Chargers drafted with the pick after Tagovailoa, is a star. He set the rookie touchdown pass record Sunday and already has the record for most 300-plus yard passing games by a rookie. He's a star and that makes Tagovailoa's struggles all the more painful.
Burrow, before he tore his ACL, showed why he was worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and Hurts, who the Eagles drafted in the second round, has burst onto the scene since getting the starting job three weeks ago.
In three games as a starter, Hurts has thrown for 847 yards (282.2 per game), five touchdowns and two interceptions while rushing for 238 yards and one score. Hurts still has things to iron out as a passer, but he's already shown he can do many things that scouts claimed he was unable to when coming out of college. He's been electric at times and has sparked a lifeless Eagles offense.
These four quarterbacks, and Jordan Love, will be tied together forever. It will take years to evaluate the class. But early returns don't look promising for the Dolphins.
The Raiders were 6-3. They had wins over the Saints and the Chiefs and were the darlings of the NFL. Despite a defense that was among the worst in the league, the Raiders were making the leap expected from them in Year 3 of Jon Gruden's return.
That all seems like another lifetime ago.
In what has felt like a rerun of the 2019 season, the Raiders are limping to the finish line. Las Vegas is 1-5 in its last six games and was officially eliminated from playoff contention with Saturday night's loss to the Miami Dolphins.
Quarterback Derek Carr wants to play in the playoffs. But that will have to wait for at least one more season.
Even if the Raiders beat the Denver Broncos in Week 17 -- which is no sure thing -- did they really learn or gain anything from this lost season?
Carr was good in his third season in Gruden's offense. During that 6-3 stretch to open the season, Carr was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Week in and week out, Carr was dealing.
But, just like the rest of the Raiders, Carr has faltered down the stretch. Through the first 13 weeks of the season, Carr ranked fourth in the NFL in third-down passer rating. Over the last three, he ranks 26th. Carr was part of the no-show loss against the Falcons, throwing for 215 yards while turning the ball over four times. He threw two more picks in a loss to the Colts two weeks later.
Carr has once again been solid, but can the Raiders be certain he's their long-term answer? He might be better than any alternative available this offseason, but that doesn't mean he's a franchise quarterback.
The Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs at No. 11 overall. The talent is there, but what the Raiders really needed was another reliable receiver. Gruden has underutilized Ruggs and the rookie doesn't appear to have the full trust of Carr. CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson or Jerry Jeudy would have given the Raiders or more reliable typical No. 1 receiver to pair with Nelson Agholor, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.
The defense, which many thought would level-up from sewer water to respectable, has been downright atrocious. Paul Guenther was given his walking papers. That's not going to be an automatic fix. The Raiders are young on defense, yes. They need to be coached better than they currently are. Their blown Cover 2 Prevent coverage against the Dolphins was proof of that.
But the Raiders also need an actual influx of talent on the defensive end. There have been whiffs, both in free agency and the draft. Perhaps it's time for Mike Mayock to fully take over personnel and just let Gruden focus on Xs and Os, something that hasn't been stellar either.
No matter how the Raiders' season ends next Sunday, their progress has stalled. There was no leap, and they are left with just as many questions as they had when the season began.
It's been a lost season for a once-promising Raiders team.
That was Robert Saleh's masterpiece.
Without Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Jimmie Ward, Emmanuel Moseley, Dee Ford and Javon Kinlaw, the 49ers' defensive coordinator rallied the troops Saturday and shut down Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals' high-powered offense.
It was undoubtedly Saleh's penultimate game as the 49ers' DC. He'll get the head-coaching job he's earned and should have gotten last offseason.
Saleh is a culture changer. He arrived and took the 49ers' defense from among the bottom of the NFL to No. 1 in 2019. He's done an even better job this season, where the 49ers still are in the top five.
Saleh's unit has been undermanned all season. DeForest Buckner, the lynchpin of last year's defense, is gone. Bosa went down in Week 2. Sherman has played in just five games.
But Saleh's defense never quit. Even with their playoff dreams over, they relished the opportunity to bottle up Murray and the Cardinals on Sunday, holding them to just 12 points.
All the focus will be on the 49ers' quarterback decision this offseason. But that won't be the most important one facing Kyle Shanahan. Saleh is leaving. Write that in Sharpie. The 49ers must find the right candidate to replace one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL.
The 49ers face an offseason that will see them rebuild their secondary. They'll have to find another edge rusher to pair with Bosa. Whoever steps into Saleh's shoes won't inherit a finished product. They will have to be the type of culture-setter who can get the most out of his unit while building them into the next great defense.
A whiff on that hire and the 49ers will undoubtedly take a step back.
The quarterback decision is important, but Shanahan knows what Garoppolo is. He knows that while his ceiling is limited, he can win with him at quarterback.
If the 49ers' defense starts to slide after Saleh's departure, then Garoppolo's ceiling could be impacted. A more vulnerable defense will cause Shanahan to ask Garoppolo to carry more of the load, something he might not want to do.
Shanahan knows how important Saleh is and how difficult it will be to replace him and keep the train moving.
But it's the most important thing he and John Lynch will do this offseason. They can't miss.
