Schrock's Week 11 picks: Can Raiders stun Mahomes, Chiefs?
The 49ers have Week 11 off, but there are a number of intriguing games. Can Derek Carr and the Raiders stun the Chiefs again? Josh Schrock makes his pick for every Week 11 game.
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The NFL season is winding down and we still have a few teams fighting to prove they are the legitimate playoff contenders their record says they are.
The Arizona Cardinals have silenced all doubters. They are for real and could very well win the NFC.
While Jon Gruden's Raiders keep on winning, there still are questions about their defense and whether or not Derek Carr can consistently make plays down the stretch to continue to rack up the wins.
So far, Carr has been impressive this season. He's shown an ability to make plays with his legs and Gruden has allowed him to take shots downfield, turning the Raiders' offense into one of the most efficient in the league.
Now comes their biggest test. On Sunday, the Raiders will welcome the Kansas City Chiefs to Allegiant Stadium for a primetime showdown. The Silver and Black stunned the Chiefs earlier this season in a 40-32 win at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs were sleepy in that game, as they have been all season, going through the motions and relying on their talent to win the day.
In eight out of nine games, that formula has worked. But Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid won't be caught off guard by the upstart Raiders again. They are ready and no doubt want to make a statement about how big the gap in the AFC West remains.
While the Raiders duel with Mahomes, the 49ers will be at home nursing their wounds on their bye week after a sloppy loss to the New Orleans Saints.
Still, there are picks to be made and money to be won. Let's get to it.
Record: 62-68 ATS (85-45-1 SU)
Line: Seahawks -3
We saw the Kyler Murray vs. Russell Wilson duel a few weeks ago, and the Cardinals eked out a win in overtime after Wilson threw three interceptions.
Seattle has lost three of its last four games and finds itself in third place in the NFC West. This is a season-defining game for the Seahawks. It's a game they simply have to win to alter the momentum of their season.
The Cardinals are coming off that thrilling Hail Murray win over the Bills and are due for a poor performance. Murray plays well, but the Seahawks have too much this time around.
Pick: Seattle 31, Cardinals 27
Line: Ravens -6.5
It's beginning to look like the 2019 Ravens were just a team riding the sensational season of Lamar Jackson and not an AFC power on the rise. Jackson's play has leveled off and the rushing attack isn't the vaunted threat it was a year ago. If Jackson doesn't bring his A-game, the Ravens struggle to put up points against good teams.
The Titans are an average team, but they have the physicality and game plan to hang with the Ravens. I'll take the 6.5, but I don't think the Titans are going to need it.
Pick: Titans 24, Ravens 23
Line: Browns -3
The Browns got back to their running ways in Week 10 as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt ran all over the Texans. Baker Mayfield's lackluster play has been concerning, but it shouldn't be an issue in this game.
Carson Wentz turned in another dud in a loss to the Giants. While they still lead the division, the Eagles look like a dead team walking.
Lay the points.
Pick: Browns 27, Eagles 20
Line: Steelers -10
I looked like a fool taking the Bengals to upset the Steelers last week. That's not going to happen again.
Pittsburgh is as locked in as any team in the NFL and I expect the Steelers' defense to torment Jake Luton all game long.
This one won't be close.
Pick: Steelers 34, Jags 14
Line: Football Team -1
Joe Burrow got welcomed to the AFC North by the Steelers. That's going to happen, especially behind a bad offensive line.
Washington's front is solid, but I'll trust Burrow to outduel Alex Smith and the Football Team's C-plus weapons.
Pick: Bengals 27, Football Team 24
Line: Patriots -2.5
Bill Belichick had to be smiling from ear to ear as the rain dumped during Sunday night's win over the Ravens. Slowly but surely, the Patriots are improving.
The Patriots have to win if they want a realistic shot at making the playoffs.
Deshaun Watson has no help and we firmly believe in betting against Romeo Crennel.
Pick: Patriots 23, Texans 17
Line: Chargers -9
I know I said last week was my last week on the Bolts bandwagon, but the Jets are awful. I absolutely refuse to lay money on Joe Flacco. But in fairness, I should stop betting on Anthony Lynn.
This one is easy. The Jets are racing toward the bottom and the Chargers want to try to find some positive momentum heading into 2021. LA has a quarterback and the Jets have Joe Flacco.
Hold your nose and lay it.
Pick: Chargers 31, Jets 17
Line: Dolphins -3
Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 as a starter and has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions in wins over the Rams, Cardinals and Chargers.
He's bound to have his welcome to the NFL game soon enough, but that won't come against a Broncos team that looked like it had given up against the Raiders.
Ride the Fins against Drew Lock.
Pick: Dolphins 23, Broncos 17
Line: Saints -5
Drew Brees will be out for the foreseeable future after suffering a collapsed lung and broken ribs. The Saints survived just fine last year when Teddy Bridgewater took the snaps with Brees out.
Will they find similar success with Jameis Winston under center?
The Falcons have looked much better since sending Dan Quinn to parts unknown. Raheem Morris is 3-1 and should be 4-0 if not for a Todd Gurley brain fart.
Jameis looked OK against a banged-up 49ers team. I'll buy the career resurgence when I see it. Take the points, but I like the Falcons outright.
Pick: Falcons 27, Saints 24
Line: Colts -2.5
Man, the books really don't like this Packers team. It's understandable not to be sold on them after they were hammered by the Bucs, lost to the Vikings and almost bungled away a game against the Jags.
But still, they are the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have looked pretty impressive on both sides of the ball.
The Colts are getting a lot of respect for beating a Titans team that almost certainly is fraudulent. I'll take Rodgers and the points.
Pick: Packers 24, Colts 20
Line: Vikings -9
The Vikings were thoroughly unimpressive on Monday night in a win over the Bears. Chicago's defense is legit and they were able to bottle up Dalvin Cook for most of the night.
The Cowboys won't be able to do that.
Andy Dalton is expected to be back under center for Dallas. I'm not sure that matters. Laying nine points with Kirk Cousins is a risky ask, but the Cowboys haven't given me any reason to believe they are making progress.
Pick: Vikings 31, Cowboys 20
Line: Bucs -3
It's another primetime spot for Tom Brady against another team that can get pressure up the middle. We've seen the Saints and Bears both have success slowing the Bucs down when being able to get in Brady's face.
The Rams' defense just gave Russell Wilson fits and LA looks like it is one of the most complete teams in the NFL. But can you trust Jared Goff in this spot? I can't do it.
When the Bucs are right, they look unstoppable. It's hard to see Brady putting up two stinkers in three weeks.
Pick: Bucs 28, Rams 23
Line: Chiefs -6
So, you want to prove you're for real? Go beat the Chiefs. Again.
The Raiders sprung a trap on the Chiefs in Week 5, but Kansas City won't be asleep at the wheel this time. The Chiefs are upset about the victory lap the Raiders took around Arrowhead Stadium after that win and are motivated to prove the gap in the AFC West is still miles wide.
Andy Reid teams typically are great after a bye, and I see no reason for this to be any different.
The Raiders are a playoff team, but the Chiefs are just in another stratosphere.
Pick: Chiefs 35, Raiders 27
