Three keys to 49ers upsetting Packers in divisional round

While they watched from home, the Green Bay Packers couldn't have been happy to see the 49ers beat the Dallas Cowboys in their NFC Wild Card Game. The Packers did previously beat the 49ers earlier this season, but that shouldn't matter much at this point. Green Bay defeated San Francisco on a last-second field goal at Levi's Stadium, and this is a way different 49ers team now. 

The Packers know that, too. 

But they're also the No. 1 seed for a reason. Aaron Rodgers likely will win his fourth MVP, the Packers have a strong duo in the backfield between Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion, plus Davante Adams can dominate any secondary he wants. And that's just talking about their offense. 

At the same, the 49ers rightfully have a crowd that trusts in the underdogs. They proved yet again that they're battle-tested, and they're giddy for a playoff game at Lambeau Field. If they're to pull off another playoff upset, the 49ers will need to check these three things off their to-do list. 

Pressure Aaron Rodgers

Duh. 

Let's get the obvious out of the way. Aaron Rodgers is a damn good football player. Thank me for my analysis later. He of course can be beaten, though, and the 49ers can't finish the night with only one sack on Rodgers again. 

That's what happened when these two teams faced each other in Week 3. Rodgers was blitzed eight times and hit only once. He was pressured just four times and on only 11.8 percent per dropback.

Green Bay's offensive line did a good but not great job protecting Rodgers this season. He never was sacked more than three times in a game, and only 30 times all season. In his 16 games played this season, he was pressured 129 times, which ranked 17th in the NFL. Opposing teams pressured Rodgers on 22.1 percent of his dropbacks, which was 19th in the league. 

The 49ers' defense produced the ninth-fewest pressures this season. However, against some of the best QBs in the game, the 49ers' pass rush has shown up in major ways. The 49ers produced five sacks on Dak Prescott in their win vs. the Cowboys. They did the same in the regular-season finale on Matthew Stafford, and the same goes with their win over Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. 

They'll need one of those performances against the Packers.

Protect The Ball, Jimmy 

This one too is a bit obvious, but can't be stressed enough. 

The full Jimmy Garoppolo experience was on hand in the 49ers' win in Dallas. He gutted out a thumb injury, sustained another injury -- this one to his throwing shoulder -- and seemed to be doing everything Kyle Shanahan needed to give the 49ers a 23-7 lead. 

And then he missed a wide-open Brandon Aiyuk before being intercepted the next time the 49ers had the ball. 

Garoppolo was intercepted 12 times in the regular season. Rodgers was picked off only four times. Garoppolo's pass attempts were intercepted 2.7 percent of the time, which was tied for the eighth-highest in the NFL. Rodgers led the league with a laughable 0.8 interception percentage.

When the 49ers lost to the Packers in Week 3, Garoppolo threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns. He also was intercepted once, lost a fumble with only five minutes left in the game and the 49ers trailed 17-0 until the final seconds of the first half -- when their first score was on a Trey Lance touchdown run. That can't happen again. 

Garoppolo has thrown an interception in three straight games and has tossed a total of five INTs in that span. The 49ers were a perfect 7-0 this season in games he didn't get picked, and they'll need that version of Jimmy G to show up at Lambeau Field. 

Whole New Run Game

Here's Point A of how much has changed since the 49ers last lost to the Packers. In that late-September game, rookie running back Trey Sermon was San Francisco's leading rusher. He had 10 carries for 31 yards and scored his only rushing TD this season. Sermon played nine games and finished with only 167 yards in his rookie year. 

Those aren't exactly Elijah Mitchell numbers. 

Mitchell was injured and inactive for the 49ers' loss to the Packers. He certainly could have made a big difference. Over the 49ers' last three games, Mitchell has rushed for 300 yards, averaging exactly 100 yards per game. That's only one part of the equation, too. 

Deebo Samuel carried the ball only twice and didn't gain a single yard against Green Bay. He wasn't yet his wide-back self, and was zero help to the run game. That's a tad different now. 

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Samuel rushed for a game-high 72 yards against the Cowboys, and now has scored nine rushing TDs this season. The 49ers improved to 7-0 when they give Samuel at least six carries this season. 

The more Deebo, the better, and the 49ers' running game is a whole new beast this time for the Packers to try and tackle. 

So there it is. Get after Rodgers, protect the football and make sure it gets in the hands of Mitchell and Samuel. Simple as that. 

Right?

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