The high end of any comparison of 49ers quarterback Trey Lance is Josh Allen.
Allen is young, big and strong. He has a powerful arm and is a formidable threat as a runner, too.
Allen entered the league as the No. 7 overall pick of the Buffalo Bills in the 2018 NFL Draft after completing just 56.3 percent of his pass attempts during his final season at Wyoming.
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Lance was the No. 3 overall pick of the 49ers in 2021. He completed 66.9 percent of his pass attempts during his one and only season as the North Dakota State starter. Lance also rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Allen started 11 games as an NFL rookie. Lance started two games last season when starter Jimmy Garoppolo was sidelined due to injuries.
So what would be a reasonable expectation from Lance this season as the full-time starter? Let’s look at how Allen fared in his second season before his production took off as a third-year pro and he became a star.
This is where we take a slight detour . . .
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Coach Kyle Shanahan last week suggested he fully expects Lance to take over this season as the 49ers’ starting quarterback.
Shanahan said he anticipates Garoppolo will be traded before the start of the season. So, it only goes to reason, if Shanahan expects Garoppolo to be on another team, then Lance is the player the 49ers clearly envision as the team’s starter for the 2022 season.
OK, back to what can be expected from Lance . . .
Allen started all 16 games in his second NFL season. He completed 58.8 percent of his pass attempts for 3,089 yards with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also rushed for 510 yards and nine touchdowns.
Buffalo’s top receivers that season where John Brown, who caught 72 passes for 1,060 yards and six touchdowns. Slot receiver Cole Beasley had 67 receptions for 778 yards six touchdowns.
Lance should to have a better supporting cast of skill players and pass targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk at the top of the list.
Samuel caught 77 passes for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns last season. Kittle had 71 catches for 910 yards and six touchdowns despite missing three games. And after an excruciatingly slow start, Aiyuk still compiled 56 receptions for 826 yards.
Each of those three players has a chance at 1,000 yards receiving, which would enable Lance to obliterate Allen’s yards-passing total of his second season.
What can be expected from Lance? Something along the lines of 60-percent completion percentage for 3,500 yards with 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions seems like a reasonable expectation on top of 400 to 500 yards rushing and a handful of touchdowns.
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One area where Allen set up much better than Lance early in his NFL career was from an advantage in-game experience.
From the end of high school through his first season in the NFL, Allen played a full season of junior college ball, started 26 games at Wyoming and 11 games as a rookie.
Since graduating from Marshall (Minnesota) High School in 2018, Lance has started a total of 19 games, including 17 over three years spent at North Dakota State. Lance attempted just 71 passes last season, compared to Allen’s 320 passes as a rookie.
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