The Trey Lance era for the 49ers begins on Sunday against the Chicago Bears, and while San Francisco believes in the North Dakota State product, the advanced statistics tell another story.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan went with Lance as the starter over Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, in large part because the 22-year-old brings the dual threat under center, adding another dynamic to their offense.
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However, on Wednesday, FiveThirtyEight published its QB rating projections for the 2022 NFL season. Many will be surprised about where Lance finishes in their model, which uses a rolling average of recent performances and incorporates both passing and running.
FiveThirtyEight projects Lance to have a 120 QB rating this season, putting him in 36th place and behind names that might cause people to scratch their heads.
The quarterbacks projected to have a better rating than Lance in 2022 are Washington Commanders’ Carson Wentz (124), New York Giants’ Daniel Jones (127), New England Patriots’ Mac Jones (144) and even Garoppolo (135).
Before 49ers fans hit the panic button, these are projections and are subject to change. The data might not be on Lance’s side, but it doesn’t mean the young signal caller can’t go out and prove the model wrong.
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Additionally, it’s time for the 49ers to see what they have in Lance after investing several future draft picks to move up to No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Lance has all the tools to be a successful quarterback despite what the numbers might say; now, he will have to go out on the field and prove it.