
Tom Brady reportedly is on the move, and so are the betting lines.
Brady, a six-time Super Bowl champion with the New England Patriots, reportedly has an agreement in principle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a contract that will pay him roughly $30 million annually. Arguably the best QB of all time, Brady's departure from New England obviously hurts the Patriots and benefits the rest of the AFC East teams. But how much, exactly?
Well, take a look.
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The general betting hierarchy within the AFC East remains unchanged in the aftermath of Brady's reported movement outside of it, but the teams within it aren't nearly as separated as they were beforehand. The Patriots went from heavy favorites to only slight ones, while the Buffalo Bills -- who reportedly added receiver Stefon Diggs -- closed most of the gap. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are still seen as longshots to win the division, but both received a bump in their odds as well.
We've seen what kind of effect Brady's departure can have on the betting lines. But what about his arrival?
Well, ever since the news broke, a large amount of the betting action has been on Tampa Bay.
With Brady reportedly in tow, the betting public has raised expectations for the Buccaneers in 2020. According to DraftKings, Tampa Bay has nearly even odds to finish 9-7, which would be a two-win improvement on 2019. Furthermore, the Bucs have the second-best odds to win the NFC South, and are tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the fifth- and eighth-best odds to win the NFC and Super Bowl, respectively.
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Brady is coming off arguably the worst season of his decorated career after passing for 4,057 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2019. On the surface, those numbers look fine, but he posted the second-worst completion percentage and yards-per-attempt average of his career.
Whether that dropoff was due to age or the available weapons at his disposal remains to be seen, but with receivers like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Tampa Bay, Brady is unlikely to be able to use the latter as an excuse in 2020.