NFL Draft QB rankings: 49ers, Jets set to pass on star

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The 2021 NFL Draft is two days away and all the talk revolves around the quarterbacks.It's a good class of signal-callers led by presumptive No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson. BYU's Zach Wilson is expected to hear his name called right after Lawrence, heading from Provo, Utah to New York as the new face of the Jets.The 49ers, who sit at No. 3, have everyone on pins and needles as they wait to make their selection at No. 3 overall, with most of the smoke heading in the direction of Alabama's Mac Jones.Are Lawrence, Wilson and Jones the top-three quarterbacks in the class, though? Or are the 49ers and Jets gearing up to pass on someone with superstar potential?Here are the only 2021 NFL Draft QB rankings you will need. (Feel free to yell at me on Twitter @Schrock_And_Awe.)

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<p>The dual-threat capabilities of Kellen Mond will undoubtedly intrigue a team on Day 2 of the draft, but the Aggies signal-caller has a lot of development ahead of him to become a capable NFL starter.</p>

<p>Mond, Texas A&M's all-time leading passer, is coming off a season in which he completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,282 yards, 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions.</p>

<p>While Mond's play during his senior season was encouraging, his inconsistency with touch and anticipation will worry NFL teams.</p>

<p>The upside is there, but he might never be more than a solid backup.</p>

The dual-threat capabilities of Kellen Mond will undoubtedly intrigue a team on Day 2 of the draft, but the Aggies signal-caller has a lot of development ahead of him to become a capable NFL starter.

Mond, Texas A&M's all-time leading passer, is coming off a season in which he completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,282 yards, 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

While Mond's play during his senior season was encouraging, his inconsistency with touch and anticipation will worry NFL teams.

The upside is there, but he might never be more than a solid backup.

2/8
<p>Coming off a stellar season at Florida, Kyle Trask is another Day 2 QB who will need time and development before being asked to take meaningful NFL snaps.</p>

<p>Trask is a quick, accurate thrower when it comes to the short-passing game, but he struggles when asked to make plays further down the field and he doesn't have the athleticism to make off-script plays.</p>

<p>With a good supporting cast, Trask could become a solid NFL starter but he won't be able to elevate an offense on his own.</p>

Coming off a stellar season at Florida, Kyle Trask is another Day 2 QB who will need time and development before being asked to take meaningful NFL snaps.

Trask is a quick, accurate thrower when it comes to the short-passing game, but he struggles when asked to make plays further down the field and he doesn't have the athleticism to make off-script plays.

With a good supporting cast, Trask could become a solid NFL starter but he won't be able to elevate an offense on his own.

3/8
<p>Davis Mills has the size and arm talent of a prototypical NFL pocket passer.</p>

<p>Mills' arm strength and accuracy make him suitable for a play-action-based passing attack that looks to attack the entire field. However, his lack of athleticism and mobility hampers him on bootlegs, RPOs and rollouts which will limit his landing spots.</p>

<p>The injury history also is a concern with Mills, but his talent is evident and with the proper protection and time to develop he could become a solid starter, but that's his ceiling.</p>

Davis Mills has the size and arm talent of a prototypical NFL pocket passer.

Mills' arm strength and accuracy make him suitable for a play-action-based passing attack that looks to attack the entire field. However, his lack of athleticism and mobility hampers him on bootlegs, RPOs and rollouts which will limit his landing spots.

The injury history also is a concern with Mills, but his talent is evident and with the proper protection and time to develop he could become a solid starter, but that's his ceiling.

4/8
<p>Trey Lance being the lowest-ranked of the "Big Five" has nothing to do with his talent or traits.</p>

<p>Turn on the tape and it's clear that Lance has good arm strength that enables him to drive the ball downfield with velocity and touch. Couple that with elite athleticism that makes him a real threat in the QB run game and you have the makings of a potential star. He is a football junkie with a high football IQ who clearly has the drive to be great.</p>

<p>But Lance is only 20 years old and has only 318 passing attempts under his belt. He has a tendency to leave big plays on the field and he did struggle with accuracy at times due to an inconsistent throwing motion.</p>

<p>These are all things that can be developed, but Lance will need to go somewhere that he can sit, learn and build on his impressive tools before reaching his NFL ceiling.</p>

<p>If everything goes right, he could be the best quarterback in the class but the bust potential is there.</p>

Trey Lance being the lowest-ranked of the "Big Five" has nothing to do with his talent or traits.

Turn on the tape and it's clear that Lance has good arm strength that enables him to drive the ball downfield with velocity and touch. Couple that with elite athleticism that makes him a real threat in the QB run game and you have the makings of a potential star. He is a football junkie with a high football IQ who clearly has the drive to be great.

But Lance is only 20 years old and has only 318 passing attempts under his belt. He has a tendency to leave big plays on the field and he did struggle with accuracy at times due to an inconsistent throwing motion.

These are all things that can be developed, but Lance will need to go somewhere that he can sit, learn and build on his impressive tools before reaching his NFL ceiling.

If everything goes right, he could be the best quarterback in the class but the bust potential is there.

5/8
<p>Zach Wilson's meteoric rise is expected to see him be taken at No. 2 overall by the New York Jets.</p>

<p>I have no problem with that. Wilson has rare arm talent that allows him to make off-script plays and second-reaction throws from outside the pocket, which is important in today's NFL.</p>

<p>Wilson's arm strength can be seen in one stat. Per PFF, Wilson threw 38 passes from the <a href="http://insider.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/insider/story/_/id/30574428/how-does-byu-zach-wilson-2020-season-compare-joe-burrow-2019-lsu-incredible-rise-2021-nfl-draft">left hash to within 10 yards </a>of the right sideline with a grade of 96.4. Flip that -- throwing right to left -- and he had a grade of 90.5 on 29 throws.</p>

<p>That's impressive.</p>

<p>However, I do have some questions about Wilson's rise and whether or not he's as good as the numbers suggest.</p>

<p>Last season, BYU's offense basically asked its receivers to not run a lot of routes over the middle of the field, which helped cut Wilson's turnover-worthy play rate to 1 percent. BYU's brick wall of an offensive line also aided Wilson as the quarterback only saw a <a href="https://www.pff.com/news/draft-byu-qb-zach-wilson-mistake-new-york-jets-no-2-overall">pressure rate of 21.6 percent</a>, which was eighth-best in the FBS, per PFF's Seth Galina.</p>

<p>I say all this to say that I like Zach Wilson as a prospect. The talent is evident and he could become great, but he's far from a slam-dunk No. 2 pick.</p>

Zach Wilson's meteoric rise is expected to see him be taken at No. 2 overall by the New York Jets.

I have no problem with that. Wilson has rare arm talent that allows him to make off-script plays and second-reaction throws from outside the pocket, which is important in today's NFL.

Wilson's arm strength can be seen in one stat. Per PFF, Wilson threw 38 passes from the left hash to within 10 yards of the right sideline with a grade of 96.4. Flip that -- throwing right to left -- and he had a grade of 90.5 on 29 throws.

That's impressive.

However, I do have some questions about Wilson's rise and whether or not he's as good as the numbers suggest.

Last season, BYU's offense basically asked its receivers to not run a lot of routes over the middle of the field, which helped cut Wilson's turnover-worthy play rate to 1 percent. BYU's brick wall of an offensive line also aided Wilson as the quarterback only saw a pressure rate of 21.6 percent, which was eighth-best in the FBS, per PFF's Seth Galina.

I say all this to say that I like Zach Wilson as a prospect. The talent is evident and he could become great, but he's far from a slam-dunk No. 2 pick.

6/8
<p>I'm a little higher on Mac Jones than most.</p>

<p>I understand he was surrounded by a world of talent at Alabama, but that was the same talent Tua Tagovailoa was surrounded by and Jones put up more impressive numbers than the guy everyone wanted to tank for in September of 2019.</p>

<p>I'd even argue Jones is the better prospect of the two Alabama signal-callers. Jones is a quick processor who throws with accuracy, timing and anticipation. He's a smart quarterback who can dissect a defense at the line of scrimmage and knows how to make plays within the framework of the offense.</p>

<p>Jones is coming off a season in which he posted a 95.8 grade from Pro Football Focus after completing 77.3 percent of his passes for 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions.</p>

<p>On throws over 30 yards in his Alabama career, Jones had a 60 percent adjusted completion rate and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 15-to-1. Now, I understand it's easy to give DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Co. a lot of the credit for that and I won't disagree. But on throws in the 10-to-19-yard range, Jones <a href="https://www.pff.com/news/draft-mac-jones-nfl-prospect-tua-tagovailoa-alabama-2021-nfl-draft">put 65.5 percent of his throws </a>on the mark, per PFF's Seth Galina. That's the important area in the NFL and in the 49ers' offense, so it's easy to see why he's expected to be the No. 3 pick.</p>

<p>Jones doesn't have the overall ceiling of Lance or Justin Fields, but I believe he has the arm talent and football IQ to be a good-to-great NFL quarterback.</p>

I'm a little higher on Mac Jones than most.

I understand he was surrounded by a world of talent at Alabama, but that was the same talent Tua Tagovailoa was surrounded by and Jones put up more impressive numbers than the guy everyone wanted to tank for in September of 2019.

I'd even argue Jones is the better prospect of the two Alabama signal-callers. Jones is a quick processor who throws with accuracy, timing and anticipation. He's a smart quarterback who can dissect a defense at the line of scrimmage and knows how to make plays within the framework of the offense.

Jones is coming off a season in which he posted a 95.8 grade from Pro Football Focus after completing 77.3 percent of his passes for 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

On throws over 30 yards in his Alabama career, Jones had a 60 percent adjusted completion rate and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 15-to-1. Now, I understand it's easy to give DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Co. a lot of the credit for that and I won't disagree. But on throws in the 10-to-19-yard range, Jones put 65.5 percent of his throws on the mark, per PFF's Seth Galina. That's the important area in the NFL and in the 49ers' offense, so it's easy to see why he's expected to be the No. 3 pick.

Jones doesn't have the overall ceiling of Lance or Justin Fields, but I believe he has the arm talent and football IQ to be a good-to-great NFL quarterback.

7/8
<p>I will be pounding the table for Justin Fields come Thursday night.</p>

<p>The Ohio State quarterback can do it all. He's got top-level arm talent that allows him to throw the ball with zip and accuracy to all levels of the field, and the elite athleticism to extend plays outside the pocket and make second-reaction throws.</p>

<p>He was a blue-chip prospect and has been seen as the surefire No. 2 pick in this class for the last year-and-a-half before his odd draft slide which has been aided by the usual racist tropes Black quarterbacks have had to combat for decades.</p>

<p>Any questions about Fields' processing can be thrown out the window. Per The Draft Network's Benjamin Solak, Fields threw beyond his first read 19 percent of the time, the most of any QB in this class. And he was the most accurate QB in the class on throws past his first read, per PFF.</p>

<p>Just how good is Fields? He are a few nuggets to illustrate the elite talent someone will get much later in the draft than expected.</p>

<p>Per ESPN Stats and Info, Fields completed 64.4 percent of his passes on 11-20 yard out routes with an off-target percentage of only 4.4 percent on such throws. The average off-target percentage at the Division 1 level is 22 percent on those throws.</p>

<p>Over the past two seasons, 52 percent of Fields' passes resulted in a first down which was the highest by any FBS QB who played at least 10 games, per ESPN Stats & Info. He also had a total QB of 90.0 on third down, which leads all quarterbacks in this draft class.</p>

<p>Fields was exceptional on play-action, completing 57 of 77 play-action passes last season for 907 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. He's a great thrower on the move and was brilliant on bootlegs, picking up a first down or a touchdown <a href="https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/49ers-draft-scheme-fit-trey-lance-mac-jones-justin-fields">on 27 of 50 rollouts or sprintouts,</a> per Solak.</p>

<p>Add the 4.5/4.4 speed and a chip on his shoulder the size of Mount Kilimanjaro and you've got a quarterback who is destined for stardom.</p>

I will be pounding the table for Justin Fields come Thursday night.

The Ohio State quarterback can do it all. He's got top-level arm talent that allows him to throw the ball with zip and accuracy to all levels of the field, and the elite athleticism to extend plays outside the pocket and make second-reaction throws.

He was a blue-chip prospect and has been seen as the surefire No. 2 pick in this class for the last year-and-a-half before his odd draft slide which has been aided by the usual racist tropes Black quarterbacks have had to combat for decades.

Any questions about Fields' processing can be thrown out the window. Per The Draft Network's Benjamin Solak, Fields threw beyond his first read 19 percent of the time, the most of any QB in this class. And he was the most accurate QB in the class on throws past his first read, per PFF.

Just how good is Fields? He are a few nuggets to illustrate the elite talent someone will get much later in the draft than expected.

Per ESPN Stats and Info, Fields completed 64.4 percent of his passes on 11-20 yard out routes with an off-target percentage of only 4.4 percent on such throws. The average off-target percentage at the Division 1 level is 22 percent on those throws.

Over the past two seasons, 52 percent of Fields' passes resulted in a first down which was the highest by any FBS QB who played at least 10 games, per ESPN Stats & Info. He also had a total QB of 90.0 on third down, which leads all quarterbacks in this draft class.

Fields was exceptional on play-action, completing 57 of 77 play-action passes last season for 907 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. He's a great thrower on the move and was brilliant on bootlegs, picking up a first down or a touchdown on 27 of 50 rollouts or sprintouts, per Solak.

Add the 4.5/4.4 speed and a chip on his shoulder the size of Mount Kilimanjaro and you've got a quarterback who is destined for stardom.

8/8
<p>I don't think we need to spend a lot of time on the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and perhaps since Peyton Manning.<br />
 </p>

<p>Lawrence has it all. He checks every box. Size, arm strength, accuracy, athleticism, IQ. He's the complete and total package.</p>

<p>We've spent so long debating the quarterbacks who come after Lawrence that we forgot how special the No. 1 overall pick is. He's pretty close to can't-miss and I expect him to be an All-Pro as long as the Jaguars don't get too much of their stink on him before he turns the franchise around.</p>

I don't think we need to spend a lot of time on the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and perhaps since Peyton Manning.
 

Lawrence has it all. He checks every box. Size, arm strength, accuracy, athleticism, IQ. He's the complete and total package.

We've spent so long debating the quarterbacks who come after Lawrence that we forgot how special the No. 1 overall pick is. He's pretty close to can't-miss and I expect him to be an All-Pro as long as the Jaguars don't get too much of their stink on him before he turns the franchise around.

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