Five reasons 49ers upset Packers on ‘Thursday Night Football'
The 49ers have a few things working in their favor against the Packers.
It has been a rough few days for the 49ers. Their hopes for repeating as NFC West champions likely evaporated with the 37-27 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, and their chances of qualifying for the postseason at all were dealt a major blow with Monday's announcement that both Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle likely are done for the season.
That said, they're 4-4 and still theoretically in the playoff picture. It's unlikely the 49ers will be favored in the majority of the games remaining on their schedule, but if they can pull off a couple upsets, that might just be enough. A win over the Green Bay Packers on Thursday would go a long way.
It won't be easy. The Packers (5-2) are one of the best teams in the NFC, and have a high-powered offense, much like the Seahawks. But here are five reasons the 49ers will win.
The Packers got blasted by the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, and then learned that running back A.J. Dillon had tested positive for COVID-19. Consequently, Green Bay didn't practice Monday, only held a walkthrough on Tuesday and will do the same on Wednesday.
Practice time would have been limited anyway on a short week, but when the game kicks off Thursday night, the Packers will have gone a full week without a typical practice. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers can run their offense in his sleep, but that's not an ideal situation for a team that was beaten rather handily just a few days ago.
Dillon won't play Thursday due to COVID-19 protocols, and he's not the only Packers running back that will miss the game. Jamal Williams, who has started the last two games for Green Bay, was deemed to be a high-risk close contact of Dillon's after the two sat near each other on the bench during the loss to the Vikings, so he won't play Thursday either. Williams had only started those games because starter Aaron Jones was out with a calf injury.
Jones was a limited participant in Tuesday's walkthrough, so there's a chance he plays Thursday. But the fact that the Packers elevated running back Dexter Williams from their practice squad doesn't exactly suggest that he will. If Jones is unable to play, Green Bay would be limited to just two running backs -- Williams and Tyler Ervin, who has primarily been a slot receiver so far this season. One would imagine that would make things less challenging for the 49ers' defense.
Speaking of running backs, the Packers have more than just their own to worry about. Green Bay has struggled somewhat against the run this season, as evidenced by Dalvin Cook torching them for 163 yards and three touchdowns in the loss to the Vikings. Cook also added another 63 yards and a score through the air.
The last time a player accounted for over 200 yards and four touchdowns in a game? That would be Raheem Mostert, who accomplished the feat against the Packers in last season's NFC Championship Game. Mostert won't play Thursday, but Packers coach Matt LaFleur is expecting a similar game plan.
"We better get it fixed and fast because I have a pretty good idea of what's going to happen in San Francisco," LaFleur told reporters Tuesday. "… The formula has been written, We've got to step up and get it fixed. If not, we're going to keep getting these results."
With the 49ers down to their backup quarterback, expect Kyle Shanahan to try to win on the ground.
Whether or not Jones is able to play for the Packers, you can expect Rodgers to frequently look for his two favorite targets: receiver Davante Adams and tight end Robert Tonyan.
Adams might be the best receiver in the league. Among all NFL receivers, he's tied for the most touchdowns (7) and ranks second in receiving yards per game (100.4). Tonyan, or "Baby Kittle" as he has been deemed, has burst on the scene this season with five touchdowns so far.
They're both matchups nightmares for most teams, but not necessarily for San Francisco. For each of Rodgers' favorite weapons, the 49ers have one of their own.
Jason Verrett has returned to his shutdown ways and is the third-highest graded cornerback in the league this season, according to Pro Football Focus. One would imagine he'll see plenty of Adams. Then, for Tonyan, the 49ers can throw two tremendous linebackers at him. Fred Warner has posted the second-best coverage grade among all linebackers, while Dre Greenlaw ranks 11th.
When the 49ers take the field against the Packers on Thursday, they'll be without Garoppolo, Kittle, Mostert, Tevin Coleman, Jeff Wilson, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas, Richard Sherman and possibly Jaquiski Tartt. And those are just the biggest names.
The wind has been taken out of their sails. They have been counted out. Very few outside of their own locker room expect them to accomplish much of anything from here on out.
But maybe that's exactly what will push them to a victory over the Packers. The 49ers don't have anywhere near the same talent level that they entered the season with, so they'll have to find other ways to generate an advantage. Proving doubters wrong can be tremendous motivation, and right now they certainly have plenty of them.
