Assessing 49ers' 2021 QB options: Jimmy G, Stafford or Watson?
My how fast things can change.When we left the 2020 regular season, the 49ers were heading into an offseason and appeared primed to bring back Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. After all, the realistic options outside of Garoppolo appeared slim.But here we are three weeks later and Deshaun Watson reportedly wants out of Houston, Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions have agreed to part ways and Aaron Rodgers appears pissed at the Packers after an NFC Championship Game loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.Are any of those three realistic options for the 49ers? Will they run it back with a healthy Garoppolo? Or could they used the No. 12 pick to select their quarterback of the future?I'm not Nostradamus. These aren't predictions, but rather ranking the possibility of each candidate taking snaps for the 49ers next season, including Garoppolo.I'll update the list and add names if needed as the process draws on.
Stock: Down
Wentz got benched in favor of Jalen Hurts toward the end of the season and it looked like it would be time for the Eagles to cut bait with him despite his gaudy contract extension kicking in 2021.
While it appears Doug Pederson wanted to move on from Wentz, according to some reports, the Eagles wanted to stick with Wentz and parted with ways with Pederson. Philadelphia hired Colts offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni as head coach. Sirianni worked under Frank Reich in Indianapolis and Wentz had his best years under Reich's leadership.
The Eagles appear committed to Wentz.
Chances Wentz is 49ers' 2021 starting QB: 0 percent
Stock: Down
Here's a former Kyle Shanahan quarterback who has been linked to the 49ers in the past.
The rumor, not too long ago, was that the 49ers had their eye on Cousins as their franchise guy. Then Jimmy Garoppolo came into the picture.
Cousins is under contract through 2022, but his dead cap hit is astronomical ($41 million pre-June 1 and $66 million post-June 1) so there's no chance the Vikings cut him.
Cousins played really well down the stretch and finished the season with 4,265 yards, 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
He's the Vikings' guy whether they like it or not.
Chances Cousins is 49ers' 2021 QB: 1 percent
Stock: Down
On the surface, this one feels like a winner.
Ryan had his best season when Kyle Shanahan was his offensive coordinator. He knows the system and Shanahan likes him. It's a win-win for a team and QB who want to win now.
All that sounds great, but Falcons owner Arthur Blank has said he hopes Ryan is a part of the next phase of Falcons football. The Falcons hired Arthur Smith to be their head coach and all signs point to Smith wanting to run his offense with Ryan.
If the Falcons do want to move on from Ryan, it's going to hurt. If the Falcons were to trade Ryan before June 1, they would be hit with a $49 million dead cap hit, which would be hard to stomach.
Ryan also is owed $41.6 and $36.6 million over the next two seasons. That's a big bill for a 49ers team looking to keep Fred Warner, Nick Bosa and other big names.
Never say never, but this feels unlikely.
Chances Ryan is 49ers' 2021 QB: 1 percent
Stock: Down
Dwayne Haskins was cut by the Washington Football Team, but already has signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers as Mike Tomlin hopes to rebuild the 2019 first-round pick.
With the New York Jets owning the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, many expected the new head coach to come in and draft either Justin Fields or Zach Wilson to replace Darnold. But all reports seem to suggest that Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur want to give Darnold a full season in their system and will look to either trade down in the draft or take offensive tackle Penei Sewell to better protect Darnold.
The Jets could change their mind, but for now it looks like Darnold is staying in New York.
Chances Darnold is 49ers' 2021 QB: 1 percent
Stock: Up
Rodgers once again got to the NFC Championship Game and once again came up short against a team with more weapons. Matt LaFleur's decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 8-yard line down eight points with just over two minutes to go didn't help matters.
Rodgers was dejected in his postgame press conference. He spoke a lot about his uncertain future. He's calculated and knows what he says will be heavily examined and make its way to ownership.
Rodgers was sending a message to the Packers to change their ways and go all-in to help him the way the Bucs did for Tom Brady, who beat Rodgers on Sunday.
If the Packers don't give Rodgers the help he desires, he could try and force a trade. But his massive cap hit over the next two seasons isn't in the 49ers' price range. Plus, the Packers aren't going to trade an all-time great who is coming off an MVP season.
Aaron Rodgers will be the Packers' QB in 2021. Full stop.
Next.
Chances of Rodgers being 49ers' 2021 QB: 1 percent
Stock: N/A
When the season ended, we assumed Watson was doomed to be stuck in NFL purgatory with the Texans.
But in an incredible display of incompetence, the Texans managed to piss of their star QB by not getting his input on a general manager hire and initially ignoring his request to interview Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to be head coach.
Reports suggest that Watson has played his last down for the Texans and, even if the Texans hire Bieniemy, it won't change things.
The price to acquire Watson would be incredibly high. But he's a 25-year-old star who is one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL.
As of right now, it sounds like the Jets and Dolphins are the leaders in any Watson sweepstakes. Both have the draft capital to make a deal happen should Watson force the Texans to trade him.
The 49ers undoubtedly will call to inquire about the cost for Watson, but the Jets and Dolphins might price them out early.
Chances Watson is 49ers' 2021 starting QB: 5 percent
Stock: Down
San Francisco will own the No. 12 pick and that likely means the top four quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance) already will be off the board.
Unless the 49ers trade up, I don't see them getting one of those four. They aren't getting Lawrence, who is ticketed for Jacksonville and would have to pay a hefty price to jump into the top five to take Fields or Wilson. I won't completely rule out a trade, but it feels really unlikely given the fact that the 49ers want to replenish draft capital and not give it all away.
That leaves them with two options: Mac Jones and Kyle Trask.
Both were Heisman finalists. Jones has had a sensational year leading Alabama to the national title and looks like the prototypical Shanahan quarterback. He's got a high football IQ, is very accurate on short and intermediate passes and throws a gorgeous deep ball. He moves through his reads quickly and is good at making slight movements in the pocket to extend plays.
Jones' draft stock keeps rising and I expect him to be a top-15 pick now when all is said and done. The best way to build a Super Bowl-winning roster is to have a quarterback on a rookie contract so you can use your cap space to build out the roster with with established veterans everywhere else.
I don't think Trask is the answer. He had an incredible season at Florida quarterbacking one of the best offenses in recent college football history. But he might end up being just a talented college quarterback. The arm strength isn't there and I don't see a lot to warrant taking him with a high pick. Someone will but it won't be the 49ers.
The question becomes do they draft Jones at No. 12 or take a top cornerback or edge rusher (Jaycee Horn or Gregory Rousseau come to mind) and run it back with Garoppolo?
It's trending in the latter's direction.
Chances Lance is 49ers' 2021 QB: 0 percent
Chances Wilson is 49ers' 2021 QB: 0 percent
Chances Jones is 49ers' 2021 QB: 10 percent
Chances Trask is 49ers' 2021 QB: 0 percent
Stock: Up
If it's not Garoppolo, Stafford should be the 49ers' guy.
Stafford took one listen to new head coach Dan Campbell's "bite their knee caps off" introductory press conference and decided it was time to say goodbye to the Motor City.
The Lions and Stafford reportedly have agreed to part ways. Acquiring Stafford likely would cost the 49ers' the No. 12 overall pick and probably a future second or third-round selection. If that's the price, it's well worth paying.
Stafford has the arm talent and smarts to excel in Shanahan's offense. He is a top-10 quarterback in the NFL who has the ability to stretch teams vertically and would relish playing with the 49ers' offensive talent. He's under contract through 2023, but his cap hit goes down over each of the next three seasons.
I think the 49ers will make a real run at Stafford. Conventional wisdom says that Stafford will wind up in Indianapolis, but don't count out the 49ers.
Chances Stafford is 49ers' 2021 QB: 16 percent
Stock: Holding
Barring a big trade for Stafford or a draft-day surprise, all signs still point to Garoppolo being the 49ers' trigger man in 2021.
Both Shanahan and Lynch have said they expect Garoppolo to be the starter in 2021. Garoppolo knows what he has to work on and the 49ers know that when he starts, they win.
Garoppolo, at his ceiling, is a top-12 quarterback. There's nothing wrong with that. Pair him with Shanahan and some legit playmakers and he can win a lot of games.
Garoppolo is set to make $26.2 million in salary and incentives next season. Last season, Garoppolo completed 69 percent of his passes for 3,978 yards and 27 touchdowns while throwing 13 interceptions. In six games this season, he completed 67.1 percent of his passes for 1,096 yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions.
Shanahan isn't running the scheme he wants to with Garoppolo, but the one he's created works when Garoppolo is healthy.
The 49ers are sure to take a long look at their options this offseason. They did so last spring with Tom Brady. Is there anyone out there who is better than Garoppolo? Right now there is, but both Stafford and Watson would cost a big price. Both Stafford and Watson are worth the price, but I'm not sure the 49ers will take the leap.
If they bring back Garoppolo and use their draft capital to bolster the secondary, offensive line and find an edge rusher to pair with Nick Bosa, the 49ers should be among the top teams in the NFC again.
Garoppolo has his warts, surely. But there might not be a better option available this offseason than a healthy Garoppolo. As we've seen, that's still a quarterback who can take you to a Super Bowl when he's right.
Chances Garoppolo is 49ers' 2021 QB: 65 percent
