49ers free agents: How Arik Armstead could return after breakout year

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Editor's note: Over the next two weeks, we will examine the 49ers’ top 10 scheduled free agents. For each player, we will provide reasons why the 49ers should bring him back and reasons why they should not, followed by a final determination.

Arik Armstead, DL

The 49ers chose to pick up the fifth-year option for the 2019 season at a price tag of $9 million. That proved to be a wise decision, as Armstead enjoyed his breakout season on the final year of his contract.

Armstead, who had nine sacks in 46 games entering the season, registered 12 sacks in 19 games, including the postseason. He set himself up perfectly for free agency. His performance raised his value and has put the 49ers in a difficult situation.

Reasons to bring him back

Even before the arrivals of general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers invested a lot in the defensive line. It started with the selection of Armstead with the No. 17 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

Last offseason, Lynch stated his goal was to create a “dominant force” on the defensive line. The additions of Nick Bosa and Dee Ford to go along with Armstead and DeForest Buckner enabled the 49ers to reach that standard.

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Armstead is perfect for the 49ers. He plays base downs at defensive end, which means the 49ers do not have to use Ford as an every-down player. They can save Ford for what he does best, which is get after the quarterback.

Armstead is made for the wide-nine alignment on those early downs, as he’s able to set the edge in the run game. He benefitted more than anyone from working with defensive line coach Kris Kocurek.

Then, Armstead moves inside to rush the passer on third downs. Because Buckner requires a lot of attention on the inside, Armstead is able to create a dilemma for offenses as they design their interior pass protections.

There is no getting around the fact that if the 49ers are unable -- or unwilling, at the price -- to retain Armstead, there will be a drop-off in production with his replacement (or replacements) along the defensive line.

Reasons he does not return

The 49ers wisely remained under the salary cap the past three seasons instead of spending money just to spend money. Because teams carry unused cap space from one season to the next, the 49ers are in a position to find ways to get creative and retain Armstead.

According to OverTheCap.com’s 2019 valuation, Armstead is worth $15.7 million. It would cost more than $19 million to retain him for the 2020 season on the franchise tag. That is a last resort because with a multi-year deal, the 49ers can undoubtedly structure a deal with a first-year cap number far less than the franchise figure.

Lynch acknowledges the 49ers must make calculated decisions with their contracts. Signing one high-priced player likely means that another valued player must go.

Buckner and tight end George Kittle are priorities to sign to new deals. When Buckner and Kittle get their new contracts, they will become the team’s second- and third-highest priced players behind quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Even though Buckner and Kittle are not free agents now, the team’s cap strategist Paraag Marathe has to look ahead. He must determine how a new contract for Armstead impacts the 49ers’ ability to retain both Buckner and Kittle on the lucrative multi-year contracts.

[RELATED: Report: 49ers 'working on' deal to bring back Armstead]

Final verdict

At the right price, Armstead stays. No question. But what is the right price for the 49ers? What is the right price for Armstead? The 49ers have stated they want to keep him. And Armstead, a Sacramento native, said he wants to remain with the 49ers.

The one thing that does not make sense is for Armstead to hit free agency and sign with another club. If that happens, the only compensation coming to the 49ers would be a potential compensatory draft pick in 2021. That’s not good enough.

If the 49ers are unable to work out a reasonable multi-year contract before March 12 at 1 p.m. (the deadline to use the franchise tag), the 49ers must place the franchise tag on him. That would buy time for the club to continue to negotiate a new contract.

But if the 49ers fail to lock him up with a contract beyond the 2020 season before the start of free agency a week later, they should then look to trade him for a draft pick to help them replenish the talent that is getting away. That is exactly how the 49ers acquired Ford a year ago from Kansas City. The Chiefs tagged Ford, then traded him to the 49ers for a second-round pick.

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