We have all been warned many times already: "Klay Thompson returning will not fix everything for the Warriors."
Of course that is true, especially because we do not know what version of Thompson will take the court next season for the Dubs, or even when he will be able to get out there.
But it goes without saying, the Warriors automatically are better with Thompson in uniform. Golden State might not be instantly fixed, but it surely will get a massive boost from the star's return.
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The question, of course, is to what extent?
Let's say for a moment that Thompson makes his season debut sometime in December or January for instance. How much of the old version of himself is needed for the Warriors to take a leap back into the playoffs and even more significantly, title contention?
The Klay Thompson who last played in 2019, went to five straight NBA Finals and averaged nearly 22 points on 47 percent shooting from the field and 42 percent from deep per season, and made the All-Star team each year during that stretch. He also was an All-NBA Defensive player, locking down opposing point guards, shooting guards and small forwards.
Looking back at past examples of players who returned from an Achilles injury can be a futile exercise since every physical body is different and there is no way to fully quantify the extent to which a player returns to his old self. Plus, Thompson is in a unique situation where he is coming off an Achilles tear and an ACL tear, sidelining him for what will be over two-and-a-half years.
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There is a wide spectrum of how players recently returned Achilles injuries, from Kevin Durant's incredible return to elite play this season to Rodney Hood's major regression following rehab.
Wesley Matthews tore his Achilles in 2015 with the Portland Trail Blazers and at the age of 29, rehabbed for an incredibly quick eight months to return to action for the Dallas Mavericks. However, he was not the same player after he returned. His explosion fell off considerably, and he became more of a spot-up 3-point shooter. Prior to the injury, he averaged 14 points per game on 44 percent overall shooting and 39 percent from deep. Since the injury, his overall shooting percentage tanked to sub-40 percent, but his deep ball remained pretty solid at 36 percent.
In 2017, Rudy Gay ruptured his Achilles while playing for the Kings at the age of 30. He was coming off a strong season in which he averaged 19 points per game on 46 percent from the field and 37 percent from deep in 34 minutes of action. When he returned to the court with the San Antonio Spurs, he was not the same player he once was, only playing in 22 minutes per game to go with 12 points on a poor 31 percent from deep. However, the following season, Gay recaptured some of his explosion and reinvented his playing style, utilizing the outside shot more and not attacking the hoop as much. His shooting percentages rose across the board, including 40 percent from deep, and he became a weapon off the bench for the Spurs.
The common theme between those two examples is that they began to rely on their 3 point shot more than ever post-injury. For Thompson, that should be encouraging since nearly 45 percent of his field-goal attempts came from deep over that five-year span. Klay never has been a lethal rim attacker, however, he did improve his ability to finish at the hoop over his career. But for the most part, Thompson lives behind the 3-point line and in the mid-range.
Should he lose some of his explosiveness and perhaps take a smaller volume of shots, we still could see him average something in the range of 15 to 17 points per game on his normal 40-plus percent shooting from deep. And yet, knowing Thompson as we have come to over the years, he may not be satisfied shooting the ball less than in past years.
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Defense is the biggest area of concern when it comes to Thompson's return. You would have to expect some of his lateral movement and athleticism will be hindered from the injuries, and he may not be able to be the defensive stopper he once was. A teammate like Andrew Wiggins may be asked to take on the defensive duties that Klay once held.
Will Thompson have to reinvent himself in his post-injury career? Perhaps he will pick up right where he left off like his old teammate Durant. Or it could take a season for him to find his athleticism again.
And yet, despite all the mystery, one thing is very clear.
No matter which version of Thompson the Warriors get back, they will be a much better team with No. 11 on the floor.