The dash for cash begins Thursday in the NBA. Thirty teams get back on the court, and most of them will spend the next 46 days chasing a ticket to the postseason. Twenty will earn the opportunity, and 16 will reach the first stage.
Among those who won’t go as far as initially anticipated are the Los Angeles Lakers, perhaps the most overhyped paper tiger in league history, and the Clippers, whose terrific coach is handicapped by a severely compromised roster.
The likeliest candidates to make cameo appearances in first round are the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Charlotte Hornets, the New Orleans Pelicans and the Toronto Raptors.
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As we approach March, we narrow our focus for this version of the NBA Power Rankings to the top-10 teams, most of which have a legitimate chance of spilling champagne in June.
10) Cavaliers (35-23, tied for third in the Eastern Conference): The surprise team of the season because they were thought to be too young to matter and, therefore, bound for about 50 losses. But J.B. Bickerstaff, the clear front-runner for Coach of the Year, has provided tremendous guidance. Darius Garland is a revelation. Young big man Evan Mobley has been wonderful. The Cavs have a top-five defense and a top-10 true shooting percentage. They’re intriguing. They matter. But, in the end, they’re too young to swim in the deepest postseason water with the league’s battle-scarred sharks.
9) Bulls (38-21, tied for first in the East): My goodness, does DeMar DeRozan belong in the MVP conversation. How many players have their most impressive season in Year 13? He has been pivotal in Chicago going from a sub-.500 squad to one on a path to top 50 wins for the first time since 2011. Zach LaVine is legit. Winning in the postseason, however, requires a defense with fangs. DeRozan is a minus defender, and so is Nikola Vucevic. Tristan Thompson’s legs are filled with lead. Lonzo Ball (expected back by late March) and Alex Caruso (expected back in mid-March) can’t carry all that weight.
8) Jazz (36-22, fourth in the West): They’ll be a threat because they’re always a threat, and because coach Quin Snyder and lead dawg Donovan Mitchell will make sure they remain so. They can make a deep run if Mike Conley stays healthy for the duration. That’s always a big “if.” At some point, though, the Jazz will have to find a way to conceal the weakness that seems to flare up every postseason: Rudy Gobert. The 7-foot-1 center is a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, yet opponents find ways to exploit him when it matters most. Fix that, and Utah can be scary good.
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7) Grizzlies (41-19, third in the West): Taylor Jenkins is the Coach of Year in the West, nudging out Tyronn Lue. The irrepressible Ja Morant is spectacular and utterly fearless; he seems to thrive in the face of confrontation. The front office has surrounded Ja with enough shooting for the offense to perform at top-five level, and the top-10 Memphis defense is both rugged and unyielding. They’re a year, maybe two, ahead of the Cavs, which is enough to make the Grizzlies capable of approaching the conference finals. We don’t think they will, but they’re too good to dismiss the possibility.
6) Heat (38-21, tied for first in the East): Top-five coach in Erik Spoelstra. Top-five leader in Jimmy Butler. Top-five big man in Bam Adebayo. Top-five net (offense and defense) rating. After struggling with his 3-ball in the first half of the season, Kyle Lowry seems to have found it (54.5 percent in February). The overall consistency lacking earlier, with stars shuttling from the trainer’s table to the court, is coming to the surface. They closed the break by winning six of seven, with four of the wins by double digits. Reaching The Finals is, with this group, mostly a matter of health.
5) Sixers (35-23, tied for third in the East): Joel Embiid continues to provide living proof that the traditional center is not extinct. Yeah, he sometimes pulls up beyond the arc and fires. But he punishes team in the paint, which is why he leads the NBA in free throw attempts with 11.3 per game – and in scoring (29.6). And now here comes James Harden, projected to make his Philly debut on Friday, averaging eight free throws per game. Philly’s games could approach three hours. If Harden could somehow separate himself from his playoff history, having Embiid as a partner seems optimal for postseason success.
4) Nets (31-28, eighth in the East): Remember when they were preseason favorites, with the unstoppable trio of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Harden? Injuries and Covid restrictions have robbed the Nets of their power, and we still don’t know when Kyrie will be cleared for home games. We do know that playing Ben Simmons -- who isn’t expected to play until at least the second week of March -- in the fourth quarter in the postseason invites disaster. But ... if KD is ready for the postseason and Kyrie becomes a full-time player and Seth Curry fills the shooting void created by Joe Harris’ ankle procedure, Brooklyn can snag a top-four seed and beat any team in the league.
3) Warriors (42-17, second in the West): No matter how well Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson play, or how effective Andrew Wiggins is in March, the ceiling rises only if Draymond Green is playing 35 minutes per night in the postseason. James Wiseman, projected to return in March, will help. So, too, will Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga. Without Draymond, the Warriors are a good team with a thin margin of error, an outside possibility of reaching the Conference Finals. With him, they have a realistic possibility of another parade. His return window is unknown but not expected before mid-March. The Warriors would take that in a heartbeat.
2) Bucks (36-24, fifth in the East): Why are the defending champs so close? Seven words: Fresh experience in the Finals and Giannis Antetokounmpo. No one in the league has his combination of physicality, athleticism, skill and outright savagery. He’s the most devastating force in the league, particularly in transition. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are there on to complete a terrific two-way trio. Uncertain of Brook Lopez’s return, the front office traded for Serge Ibaka. He averaged 26.3 minutes in his first three games with his new teammates. If he is productive with similar minutes in the postseason, look out.
1) Suns (48-10, first in the West): The most complete team in the league -- vet leader in Chris Paul, star scorer in Devin Booker, quality big man in Deandre Ayton, superb two-way wing in Mikal Bridges, solid supporting cast -- also was the healthiest through the first 70 percent of the season. That changed last week, when Paul sustained thumb injury that could keep him out until April. He’ll be back before the playoffs begin on April 16. Meanwhile, this is a chance for the rest of the team to show it can excel in his absence. I have doubts. But if CP3 is on the court when the postseason begins on April 16, it’s hard to choose another team.