There is a lot to peel away about the Warriors and their descent from “rough patch” to outright mediocrity, but there is only one first and final factor that will dictate whether they’re on vacation in early May or still fighting come Memorial Day.
It’s the defense. They can’t seem to recapture the early-season grit that carried them early, and by now they know they won’t win much of anything without it.
When the Warriors rolled into the Atlanta on Friday, they did so without their defense. It has been a rare presence lately, rainbow-like in its fickleness, and the Hawks light into the many openings granted by Golden State.
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The Hawks shot 60 percent in the first quarter, repeated in the second, and didn’t back off until they’d slapped the Warriors with a 121-110 loss at State Farm Arena.
“We just couldn’t get stops,” said Gary Payton II, who scored 14 points and was one of the few Warriors to play effective defense.
“We were bad in every regard, defensively, tonight to start the game,” coach Steve Kerr said. “Penetration was hurting us. We were rotating to 3-point shooters. We didn’t box out. It was a tough night for everybody.”
Not until the fourth quarter, when the Warriors entered trailing by 18 (101-83), did they click on the defensive switch. Too late. Too high a hill to climb. Another game getting away because their defense was subpar.
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“They were way too comfortable,” said Klay Thompson, whose 37 points accounted for most of the heavy lifting on offense. “They shot such great percentages. We’re going to change that.”
It wasn’t long ago that the Warriors thought, with good reason, that their ragged defense would change for the better, get stitched together, if not entirely fixed, when Draymond Green was back on the court. During his nine-week absence, Golden State dipped from No. 1 in defensive rating to No. 2, behind the Suns.
That’s not a steep plummet, but a deeper probe illustrates why it was reasonable to believe Green’s presence would be the change. The Warriors were 10th in defensive rating in his absence -- and 17th in the three weeks leading up to his return 11 days ago.
In the six games played since Green rejoined lineup, the Warriors are 18th.
The Draymond we’ve seen is not yet the Draymond we’ve known, and that guy likely will emerge in the coming days.
But this has gone on too long to suggest it’s a trend, a dip from the norm. Until they can prove otherwise, this is who the Warriors are.
“I need to be better on that end,” Thompson conceded. “We need to play with more aggression on the ball, play with more force.
“Luckily for us, we still have seven, eight, nine games until the playoffs. I know in my heart that it’s going to pick up when it’s winning time. In this last couple weeks, we’re going to reel it in. We’re going to start in Washington.”
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Eight games remain in the regular season, beginning with the Wizards on Sunday.
Unless they put some teeth in their defense, nothing else matters.
Bark about the Warriors’ use or misuse of Stephen Curry. Growl about the chill-or-thrill ride that is Andrew Wiggins. Debate, if you will, the folly of whether Thompson and Jordan Poole should switch roles when Curry returns.
Grumble on, if you must, about the front office failing to obtain a backup big man while awaiting, in vain, the return of James Wiseman.
Hypotheticals are great for social media and sports-talk shows, but they don’t win games. The Warriors, 27-7 through their first 34 games, are 21-19 over their last 40. They are only as good, or bad, as their defense. It’s what nourishes their best offense.
“We have to explore some lineups,” Kerr said. “But we also have to get settled on some lineups by the time the playoffs start. It’s a challenge, but our guys are up to it.”
Kerr still believes. Klay still believes. Their belief that a better defense is on the horizon will ring hollow, though, until, or unless, it becomes visible.