Warriors stars' scouting reports show draft is inexact science
The NBA draft is, at best, an inexact science. Look no further than the Warriors' roster as to why.
The NBA draft is, at best, an inexact science. How else can you explain two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard being selected outside of the lottery in 2013 and '11, respectively?
Draft preparation and scouting are filled with all kinds of biases -- implicit or otherwise -- and other hurdles that make projecting the professional futures of players an especially fraught endeavor. Look no further than the Warriors' roster.
Golden State's "Big 3" of Steph Curry (No. 7 overall in 2009), Klay Thompson (No. 11 in 2011) and Draymond Green (No. 35 in 2012) were all drafted outside of the top five, and each is among the handful of players in their respective draft classes to earn All-NBA honors and play in (at least) one All-Star Game.
You're going to hear all kinds of comparisons of prospects to current players in the lead-up to Wednesday's 2020 NBA Draft, so it's worth asking: What were scouts saying about Curry, Thompson and Green? We examined their pre-draft scouting reports on NBADraft.net to see their pro comparisons and how they've performed against those expectations.
Mind you, this isn't intended to dunk on one of the best resources for draft analysis out there, or add another piece to the lexicon praising the Warriors' draft savvy. Ahead of Golden State making a potentially franchise-altering decision Wednesday, this all goes to show just how much guesswork is involved.
Pre-draft comparable: Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf
Key line: "Curry can put the ball on the floor and create his own shot from anywhere on the floor and he doesn’t need much space to get his shot off." -- Stevan Petrovic, Dec. 15, 2008
Somebody beat Phil Jackson to the punch.
Curry already has played more NBA seasons than Abdul-Rauf, yet that's almost certainly because of backlash over the latter's decision to sit during the national anthem in 1996 rather than his play. Abdul-Rauf averaged 19.2 points, 6.8 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game during the season in which he first sat, leading the Denver Nuggets in the latter two categories.
During that season, Abdul-Rauf shot 43.4 percent, 39.2 percent and 93.0 percent from the field, on 3-pointers and at the free-throw line, respectively. He finished just shy of the top 10 in 3-point attempts (5.4 per game) and led the league in free-throw percentage.
Sound familiar?
Curry took Abdul-Rauf's blueprint to Hall-of-Fame heights, of course, but the Warriors probably would've been thrilled with the pick had he simply reached the level Abdul-Rauf could've were it not for the marginalization he experienced because he didn't stand for the national anthem.
Pre-draft comparable: Marco Belinelli
Key line: "Plays well off the ball. Stays active. Works hard to create scoring opportunities. Understands how to create shots for himself off the ball coming off screens." -- Aran Smith, April 22, 2011
When the Warriors drafted Thompson, Belinelli -- himself a former Golden State draft pick (No. 18 overall in 2007) -- had just averaged what was a career-high 10.7 points per game on what was a career-best 41.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The latter mark was top 20 in the NBA among qualifying players that season.
Belinelli was the San Antonio Spurs' eighth man when they won the title in 2014, which doesn't seem like an unreasonable level for a player taken in the middle of the first round -- as Thompson was projected to be in 2011. Thompson shot below 40 percent from 3 in two of his three seasons at Washington State, so it wasn't a given he'd never fall below that line shooting from three feet further out in the pros.
Still, Thompson has consistently shot at a clip Belinelli only reached in his best seasons, and his development on defense is what made the "Splash Brother" exceed expectations. Thompson told The New York Times' Scott Cacciola last year that he focused on his defense in part because of Curry's offensive dominance. That's the kind of team-specific circumstance which makes projecting prospect's futures so difficult and, at times, futile before the draft.
Pre-draft comparables: Luke Harangody/Jared Dudley
Key line: "His ceiling dances around the mid-20s, where a playoff can use him right away to compliment its better players." -- Jonathan Wasserman, May 14, 2012
As my esteemed colleague Monte Poole expertly laid out last week, Green was precisely the prospect that teams long undervalued: A jack of all trades and a master of none caught between positions. Green, like Harangody and Dudley, was an undersized power forward who played four years in college.
Harangody -- drafted No. 52 overall in 2011 -- has played overseas since 2013, while Dudley -- drafted at No. 22 in 2007 -- just won his first championship in his 13th NBA season. Dudley did a little of everything as a vital bench piece with the Phoenix Suns by the time Green was drafted, but not as much of everything as Green would do with the Warriors.
Golden State was not a playoff team when it drafted Green, but Wasserman's projection proved correct the following season when the Warriors snapped their playoff drought with Green a part of their rotation. Steve Kerr made Green a starter in his third season, and Golden State reached dynastic heights from there.
Green's eventual success had little precedent, and you'd have to imagine Bob Myers and Co. would've been ecstatic with the pick had they been told Green only would end up being as good as Dudley. Setting precedent as a prospect, as Curry and Thompson also did, is a high bar to clear, let alone predict.
For good measure, here are quick looks at two key Warriors and how they've fared against pre-draft expectations. It's too early to tell if Eric Paschall will follow in Curry, Thompson and Green's footsteps, but Andrew Wiggins offers something of a cautionary tale of projecting too much from a teenager.
Eric Paschall
Pre-draft comparable: PJ Tucker/Jason Maxiell
Key line: "A great leader who would fit in well coming off the bench, providing offense and a necessary spark of energy." -- Kailey Jackson and Ben Yokoyama, April 22, 2019
Kerr, like his mentor Jackson before him, was beaten to the punch on his Tucker comp.
Andrew Wiggins
Pre-draft comparable: Vince Carter/Rudy Gay
Key line: "The sky is the limit for him, as he’s been blessed with the type of athleticism that does not come along in every class. Considered by some as the best athlete to surface in 10 years, since LeBron James. Will he develop the work ethic to maximize those abilities is the question." -- Michael Visenberg, April 20, 2014
Warriors assistant coach Ron Adams similarly said "the sky's the limit" for Wiggins, but the Warriors mostly just want Wiggins to fit in. Golden State thinks it can bring the best out of the 25-year-old, but his ceiling now appears considerably lower than many projected it would be when he was selected No. 1 overall as a 19-year-old.
