It all comes down to this.
With the 2022 NBA Finals beginning Thursday night in Game 1 at Chase Center, the Warriors will embark on finishing off the latest chapter to their historic dynasty in the Bay.
According to a pair of notable prognosticating models, however, Golden State will suit up Thursday as big underdogs to the Boston Celtics.
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ESPN’s Basketball Power Index -- a measure of overall team strength accounting for efficiency, strength of schedule, pace, days of rest and preseason expectations -- gives the Warriors just a 14 percent chance to take down Boston.
FiveThirtyEight thinks slightly higher of Golden State but not by much, slotting the Warriors’ odds of bringing home a title at 20 percent.
The odds are surprising, given the fact that the Warriors finished with more wins (53) than Boston (51) and will be heading into Game 1 with significantly more rest. Golden State sent the Denver Nuggets home in five games, finished off the Memphis Grizzlies in six and put the Dallas Mavericks to bed in five. Boston, meanwhile, swept the Brooklyn Nets in the opening round but have had to close out their last two series against the Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat in seven games.
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Nevertheless, it should be a tight series. The Celtics and Warriors posted the league’s top two defensive ratings during the regular season at 106.2 and 106.6, respectively. Golden State, led by Steph Curry and Klay Thompson on the offensive end, is averaging the most points of any playoff team (114.5), while the Celtics are eighth (107.1).
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For the record, the FiveThirtyEight model has been wrong before. It gave the Warriors just a 27 percent chance of taking down the Mavericks in the Western Conference finals, only to watch as Golden State easily handled their business against Luka Dončić and company.
Curry and the Warriors will be looking to prove those models wrong again and cruise through San Francisco in their fourth championship parade in eight years.