Steve Kerr

What Kerr believes is behind NBA scoring lead fragility

NBC Universal, Inc.

Leads in the NBA are not what they used to be – and Steve Kerr and Co. know first hand. 

 Blowing late-game leads is prominent among the many narratives surrounding the Warriors during the 2023-24 NBA season, with the aforementioned collapsed leading to many of Golden State’s 29 losses.  

In four games this season, the Warriors led by double-digits in the fourth quarter but still lost.

But the Warriors aren’t alone, as double-digit leads in the NBA continue to disappear at what appears to be a higher rate. 

And Kerr has an idea on why that might be the case.

“I think it’s mostly pace and 3-point shooting,” Kerr told reporters. “Not just three-point shooting prowess but teams putting four and five 3-point shooting players on the floor at one time. The volume of threes, shot quality.”

The strategy and intelligence behind NBA team's schemes might also be an influential reason fueling the fragility of double-digit leads.

“I think teams are much smarter now than we were 10 years ago in terms of understanding what’s a good shot, what’s not,” Kerr added. “Way more early-possession threes now, so transition threes. 

“It just feels like you’re up 12, and the other team gets two quick stops on you and they race down, they throw it ahead and they hit two, quick threes.

“It’s like a six-point game, you know? So, 20 is the old 12, you know? 12 is the old seven. There’s definitely an awareness from everybody that leads are not safe.”  

It appears the Warriors have caught the short end of the stick as play in the NBA continues to evolve. 

But if 3-point shooting is one of the main drivers behind the recent phenomenon, it should only be a matter of time before Steve Kerr and Co. start benefiting, right?

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