The Warriors come out of the All-Star break Thursday in Portland against a Trail Blazers team with none of its Opening-Night starters. Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic are injured. CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Robert Covington were traded weeks ago.
And yet, if the regular season were to have ended Wednesday, the reconstructing Blazers would be bound for Los Angeles to face the Lakers in the play-in tournament.
Which is to say the 2022 NBA playoff race undoubtedly will feature a few franchises that would prefer to begin preparing for the draft lottery.
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But 10 teams are invited to advance beyond the regular season, with eight entering the postseason. Here’s a look at the eight teams likely to be standing when the playoffs begin on April 16:
No. 8 seed: Lakers (27-31)
As long as LeBron James remains upright and agile, they’ll be in the playoffs. Barely, but certainly, because the lower tier of the conference doesn’t offer much resistance, though the New Orleans Pelicans could threaten.
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Losing Anthony Davis for at least a month will hurt, keeping them from making a significant rise in the standings, but it won’t drop them from play-in position. They could use the scoring boost provided if Kendrick Nunn, out all season with a knee injury, is cleared to play.
Something to watch: The defense, atrocious all season, was notably better in the weeks before the All-Star break.
No. 7 seed: Clippers (30-31)
Assuming a clean MRI on his strained elbow this week, seven-time All-Star Paul George could return by mid-March. That would be huge lift for a group that, largely thanks to remarkable coaching of Tyronn Lue, has held up reasonably well without cornerstones Kawhi Leonard and George.
Though Leonard is not expected back this season, the trade-deadline additions of Powell and Covington still ought to be enough to push the Clippers several games above .500 and then through the play-in round.
No. 6 seed: Nuggets (33-25)
Reigning MVP Nikola Jokić has done plenty to ensure his team wouldn’t tumble due to the prolonged absences of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. The supporting cast lacks stellar standouts but has done a wonderful job of filling roles and grinding out ways to win games.
It has been a team effort, to be sure, and Michael Malone might be having his best season as a coach. There are reports that both Murray and Porter could be cleared to return late in the regular season. If so, look out.
No. 5 seed: Mavericks (35-24)
After plodding through the first two months of the season, overweight and shooting poorly, Luka Dončić is back to his fantastic self.
Since the calendar flipped to 2022, he’s averaging 29.3 points, 10.3 rebounds and 9.4 assists. Such production is essential for Dallas to have any chance of even modest success in the postseason.
Here’s another reason why the Mavs could make noise: They’re fifth in defensive rating (107.2) after finishing no higher than 16th in any of the previous four seasons. Wouldn’t be surprised if they make a run at the No. 4 seed.
No. 4 seed: Jazz (36-22)
They’re regular-season lions and postseason lambs, but always a factor for a round or two. They have one bona fide star, Donovan Mitchell, and one double-edged presence, Rudy Gobert. If Mitchell recovers from the illness that has kept him out of the All-Star Game, the Jazz can make a push.
They’re not likely to move higher than No. 4, though, because of the inconsistencies of offensive weapons Bojan Bogdanović and Jordan Clarkson. Though Gobert rakes in awards for his defense, the NBA has figured out his impact can be negated by “small ball.”
No. 3 seed: Grizzlies (41-19)
The next victory will send them over their preseason over/under win total of 41.5. With 22 games remaining, count on it.
They’re good enough and balanced enough to soar past 50 for the first time since 2015. Ja Morant is the centerpiece, a stunning combination of Allen Iverson and Russell Westbrook at his best. Assuming Dillon Brooks returns next month, as expected, they should be whole.
We’re not ready to put them in The Finals, as ESPN’s Jay Williams did, but they’ve reached the “tough out” stage of their development.
No. 2 seed: Warriors (42-17)
The team that once measured its regular season by its overall seeding – No. 1 or bust – has conceded that pursuit.
Injuries have derailed any reasonable chance of that. Those same injuries, most notably to Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala, also threaten their chance to reach the Conference Finals, much less the NBA Finals or a championship.
The hope is that Iguodala returns soon, followed by James Wiseman. The prayer is that Green can return for the final three weeks of the regular season. Retaining their current place in the standings won’t be easy, but solid defense will do the trick.
No. 1 seed: Suns (48-10)
The only team in the league that’s a virtual lock to surpass the 60-win mark, the Suns have a 6.5-game lead in the West and are 10.5 games better than any team in the East.
Yeah, the No. 1 overall seed is theirs for the taking.
The question they must answer now is one they haven’t had to address at all this season: How good can they be without Chris Paul, their clear leader? He has played every game this season, but now will miss at least a month with a thumb injury. Devin Booker is under the microscope.