As the Warriors begin their playoff run on Saturday, both the public and Steve Kornacki’s computer model agree: Golden State is not only favored to get past the first round against the Denver Nuggets, but this team could also go all the way.
Kornacki, NBC News’ National Political Correspondent, said his model predicts the Warriors have an overwhelming 69.6 percent chance at winning the series against the Nuggets.
What’s more, the betting odds for Golden State to win the championship outright currently sit at 8-1. That’s tied with the Boston Celtics for third best in the league and behind only the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns, who had the best regular season record.
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While the Warriors lost three of four to the Nuggets during the regular season, Kornacki pointed out that Golden State wasn’t at full strength for those games, with Klay Thompson and Draymond Green missing most of the head-to-head matchups with Denver.
Thompson, Green and Steph Curry played a total of 11 minutes together during the regular season, but with Curry returning for Game 1, they’re expected to all be on the court at the same time for an extended stretch beginning Saturday.
“We all know that excuses can be pretty easy to come up with, but when it comes to the rocky season the Warriors have had, there actually is one thing that both our computer model and the general public agree on: It’s that the Warriors have some very legitimate excuses,” Kornacki said.
Related: Where Warriors stand among title contenders as playoffs begin
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By contrast, the Nuggets have just 35-1 odds to win the title.
“Nobody in the general public seems to think the Nuggets are going much of anywhere,” Kornacki said.
Kornacki concluded that the Warriors team that shows up in the playoffs will be “a different Warriors team than we saw for most of the season.”
“So the computer and the public agree,” Kornacki said. “We’re looking at a different Warriors team when the playoffs start.”