How playoff scenarios look for Warriors entering final week

The Warriors had a few chances over the last 10 days to cement their status as a top-six Western Conference seed, but brutal losses to the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 26 and to the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night have put Golden State in a precarious position.

While the Warriors currently are 41-38 and the No. 6 seed in the West, the Los Angeles Clippers (41 wins), Los Angeles Lakers (40 wins) and New Orleans Pelicans (40 wins) all also have 38 losses.

Making things worse for the Warriors is, at the moment, they don't hold tiebreakers over the Clippers, Lakers or Pelicans.

The Lakers won the season series over the Warriors three-games-to-one, so they own the tiebreaker.

The Clippers split the season-series with the Warriors, but Los Angeles (7-7) currently owns a better division record than Golden State (6-9). The Warriors have one division game remaining (at the Kings on Friday night), while the Clippers have two (home against the Lakers on Wednesday and at the Phoenix Suns on Sunday).

The Warriors and Pelicans also split the regular-season series, but entering the final week of the season, New Orleans (28-21) has a better conference record than Golden State (27-22). All three of the Warriors' remaining games are against the West, while three of the Pelicans' final four games are against the West.

A bit of good news for the Warriors is that because the Clippers and Lakers play each other Wednesday night, one of those two teams will have at least 39 losses by the end of the season.

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The best-case scenario for the Warriors would be to win out to improve to 44-38, while the Clippers, Lakers and Pelicans all lose at least one game over the final week, meaning the best any of the three could finish is 43-39.

A week ago, the Warriors had dreams of possibly securing the No. 5 seed in the West, and while that still remains a possibility, the goal now is No. 6 and avoiding the play-in. But they could use some help from the teams at the top of the Western Conference standings.

The Kings, who appear to be locked into the No. 3 seed in the West, could do the Warriors a big favor by beating the Pelicans on Tuesday night. Of course, the Warriors and Kings play each other Friday, an absolute must-win for Golden State.

The Suns close out the season on the road against the Lakers and at home against the Clippers, so Kevin Durant's new team could help out his old team in a big way.

So, how could all of this play out? Per ESPN's Andrew Lopez and Matt Williams, with help from the Basketball Power Index, the most likely scenario (8.5 percent chance of happening) has the Clippers and Warriors making the playoffs as the final two seeds, with the Lakers securing the No. 7 seed and the Pelicans capturing the No. 8 seed. The Oklahoma City Thunder would host the Timberwolves in the 9-10 matchup.

Per Lopez and Williams, the most likely scenario where the Warriors fall into the play-in tournament (3 percent chance of happening), has the Pelicans and Clippers securing the final two playoff spots, with Golden State (No. 8) heading to Los Angeles to take on the No. 7 seed Lakers.

Lopez and Williams found one six-way tie scenario between the Warriors, Pelicans, Lakers, Clippers, Thunder and Timberwolves that has a 0.000009 percent chance of happening. In this unlikely situation, all six teams would finish with 41-41 records, and because the tiebreakers don't favor the Warriors, they would get the No. 8 seed.

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The whole situation is fluid and will change on a day-to-day basis, with a very likely scenario where the final seeding comes down to the last day of the regular season on Sunday.

Buckle up. The Warriors and Dub Nation are in for a wild ride over the next six days.

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