Why Marcus Semien's MVP chances improve with shortened MLB season

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With talks heating up about the MLB season potentially resuming sometime in the near future, PointsBet reminded us about their current AL MVP odds. 

Angels outfielder and reigning MVP Mike Trout is listed as the favorite at +135, but three A's players are on the board and listed to win the award: Matt Chapman at +2000 ($100 bet wins $2000), Marcus Semien at +3300 and Matt Olson at +4500. 

At DraftKings, Chapman is +2000 as well, but Semien is +4000 and Olson is +6600. 

Initially, you might think a bet on Chapman is the way to go. At 27 years old, Chapman is just entering his prime and coming off an All-Star campaign.

He finished 6th in MVP voting last season, and 7th in MVP voting in 2018, so taking another leap to take home the award in 2020 would not be surprising.

Chapman put together a terrific season in 2019, slashing .249/.342/.506 with 36 homers and 91 RBI, along with taking home the Platinum Glove Award for his spectacular defense at third base.

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Chapman is tied for the seventh-best odds at PointsBet, and tied for the fourth-best odds at DraftKings.

However, the best bet value-wise out of the trio of candidates is shortstop Marcus Semien. 

Semien finished third in MVP voting last season, accumulating the third-highest WAR in the AL. But he's tied for just the 11th-best odds to win the award this season at PointsBet, and the 14th-best odds at DraftKings.  

He batted .285 in 2019, with 33 home runs and 92 RBI. He posted a .369 OBP and .892 OPS, and was a runner-up for the Gold Glove at shortstop. 

Semien arguably was the A's best player over the second half of last season, and could carry that improvement into the 2020 campaign, whenever it starts.

Additionally, the shortened schedule should help Semien's chances. MLB owners agreed to an 82-game season in their latest proposal that they submitted to the players.

Here is Semien's line over the last 82 games of last season: .295/.383/.602, slash line, good for a .985 OPS, with 22 homers, 52 RBI. Those numbers certainly would be good enough to be in the conversation for MVP in a shortened season. 

After the All-Star Break last year, Semien led the team in home runs, hits and was second in slugging and OPS.

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When betting on the MVP this season, the case is simple for an underdog. There will be a shortened season if it is played. With fewer games, hot streaks and cold streaks will make more of an impact. If Mike Trout gets off to a slow 30-game start, it’ll be a lot harder for him to correct that with just 52 games left rather than 132. 

Semien has showed he's capable of getting hot and staying hot for that period of time. 

There won't be full stadiums and there likely will be no fans or only a small amount of them in attendance. Homefield advantage won't really exist and we don't know which players will react positively or negatively to the changes.

It is an unprecedented time for the sport.

With so many variables, a favorite like Trout doesn't present enough value to place a wager. Out of all the seasons to be on an underdog to win MVP, this would be the one. 

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