Giants discuss tweaks as Rogers' perplexing season continues

SAN FRANCISCO -- The eighth inning on Tuesday night was the worst of Tyler Rogers' career, but in a lot of ways, it was similar to what he experienced last month when the Giants visited New York. 

With his team holding a 5-1 lead in the eighth inning on April 20, Rogers took over and got a liner to second. Then the weird stuff started. 

Pete Alonso inside-outed a fastball on his hands, spinning it down the first base line for a single on a ball with a hit probability of five percent. Eduardo Escobar poked a fastball the other way, off of Wilmer Flores' glove and into left field. Mark Canha hit a slow liner up the middle, just out of the reach of a diving Brandon Crawford. 

Rogers got out of that inning with a groundout and a liner to third, and just one run scored, but it was more stressful for the Giants than it should have been given the quality of contact. Only one ball left the bat at more than 90 mph, but it was emblematic of what Rogers has dealt with all year. 

As he stood and watched his defenders field grounders at Citi Field the next day, manager Gabe Kapler said the staff spends a lot of time discussing how to line the defense up behind Rogers. 

"I've had this exact conversation with Kai (Correa) and our other infield coaches and analysts: Are we missing anything with how we can defend for Rog better?" Kapler said. "I continue to think that there's probably a way to defend for Rog better. We just haven't quite figured out what it is and we can't quite quantify it yet."

A month later, the Giants are having the same conversations. Rogers gave up seven singles and a triple on Tuesday night, blowing a four-run lead but getting off the hook when Joc Pederson hit his third homer. 

The nightmare frame lifted his ERA to 7.41 through 19 appearances, more than triple last year's mark (2.22) and nearly three times his ERA from his first three seasons (2.56). But if you peek under the hood, you see that Rogers is ... basically the exact same guy he was the last three seasons, when he was one of the most effective pitchers in the NL.

The strikeout rate is down a tiny bit and his walk rate up a bit, but Rogers is getting groundballs at the exact same rate (57.6) as in 2021. His expected ERA (2.53) is his lowest since a cameo in 2019 and his FIP is 3.01. Rogers is allowing an average exit velocity of 81.8 mph, the second-lowest in the Majors. He's in the 97th percentile in barrel percentage and 94th percentile in expected slugging. He has faced 76 batters this year and none have homered. 

"Rogers is getting the ball on the ground, he's getting weak contact, he's still not walking dudes. He's not striking out a lot of dudes, but that's not something that he really does," Kapler said this week. "Are there adjustments to make? Always. Are those maybe some positioning things that we need to think through? Maybe. Do we just flat-out need to catch the ball more? Yeah, we probably do? Are there adjustments that Rogers can make? Of course. 

"All of those things can all be true and we can say this is a guy that's looking like Rogers from last year and the year before and we probably need to hang in there and keep giving him really important opportunities against tough hitters."

With his submarine style, Rogers is perhaps the most unique reliever in the big leagues, and right now the Giants face an interesting dilemma. 

Their top setup man has allowed multiple runs in three of his last four appearances and has given up 15 hits in nine May outings, but the numbers scream that the Giants should just stay the course. That is mostly what they've done, but they continue to dig into the data. 

Kapler and the staff talk often of whether they should pull infielders in with Rogers on the mound, or perhaps play them further back. They work with Rogers on fielding his position, which is crucial given how many balls are rolled in front of the plate. They discuss positioning, although last year they decided there was no upside in shifting behind Rogers because nobody gets their A-swing or normal contact off of him. 

Alonso is your traditional slugger with pull power, but he started that rally in New York last month with a 77 mph grounder the other way that was skidding along the dirt as it got between the first base line and Darin Ruf. Lindor's triple on Tuesday was one of just two base hits he's had down the third base line this season. 

"Hitters take awkward swings and they slap the ball and they get jammed and the ball has funny spin on it," Kapler said. "Our charts (with Rogers) are always going to be a little bit different."

The Giants have as many coaches and analysts as any organization, but they haven't figured out a way yet to properly shift behind Rogers because so many of the swings are so weird. What they have talked about, is simply plugging another hole.

Would the Giants ever use a five-man infield when Rogers is on the mound? 

"We talk about it frequently and usually we have a couple of opposing batters who -- in the right situation -- we would use five infielders with," Kapler said. "You just don't see many deep fly balls in the gaps and we're just covering more low line drives, more ground balls. It makes some sense. 

"Before every series, we discuss the heavy ground ball guys on the other side and couple them with Rogers and talk about what we would do with the game on the line and the winning run on third base. We have a collection of guys that we would do that with."

There are times when Rogers is getting singled to death and the Giants are tempted to just pull an Austin Slater or Luis González onto the dirt to fill another gap, but it's only likely to happen for an extreme ground ball hitter in a big spot. For now, the best bet might be to just let the luck turn. 

Rogers allowed a .278 batting average on balls in play last year but it's .367 this season. The Giants as a staff are allowing an MLB-leading .326 BABIP, and while a lot of that is self-inflicted -- they have played some poor fielders in order to get more bats in the lineup and have been particularly sloppy defensively in May -- those things tend to even out. Better days should be ahead for Rogers, Alex Cobb and others, which is why the solution right now is just to keep doing what they're doing. 

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Rogers is getting ground balls and inducing softer contact than anybody. That's exactly what any team would want, even if the results haven't been there yet. 

"If there's any adjustment it's probably to remind him that those things are going to make him be the same pitcher he's been for the last couple of years," Kapler said, "Which is a great Major League reliever and arguably our most valuable over the course of a three-year stretch."

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