Five ways Giants' bid for NL West repeat could be derailed

As the Giants focused on amassing depth, not star power, all offseason, one thing team officials said repeatedly was that they felt a little bit fortunate in 2021. There were some notable injuries, but for the most part, the Giants did a very solid job of keeping MLB's oldest roster healthy, particularly when it came to the rotation.

This spring has provided a reminder that things can change in a hurry. Evan Longoria (finger surgery) and LaMonte Wade Jr. (knee) will miss the start of the season and Tommy La Stella got more doubtful for Opening Day on Tuesday when he was scratched from the lineup. Brandon Belt didn't make his spring debut until Saturday because of continued issues with his right knee, which has already been operated on twice and knocked him out for over a month last summer.

The easiest way to have all your offseason plans derailed is to outpace your rivals in injuries, and for as much depth as the Giants have built, they'll be dependent on that luck. 

Yesterday, we looked at five ways they can overcome any speed bumps and again compete for an NL West title. Today, five issues -- other than the obvious one of the spring injuries -- that could potentially keep them from reaching their goals: 

Leaning to the Left

Yes, it's been harped on all offseason, but that's because it's such an easy thing to be concerned about. Here are the Giants' leaders last season in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers:

1. Evan Longoria (out at least six weeks)
2. Buster Posey (retired)
3. Darin Ruf
4. Austin Slater
5. Brandon Belt
6. Donovan Solano (signed with Cincinnati)

That doesn't even include Kris Bryant, who was acquired in July to balance the lineup but now owns the biggest contract in Denver. The only notable addition to the lineup was Joc Pederson, who has been the left-handed half of a platoon for much of his career. 

The front office believes this team will be fine against lefties, but until it's proven out on the field, it's hard not to look at the roster and feel like it's going to be a real issue. 

Regression

There's something in the water at Oracle Park. Or, something pretty special about this coaching staff. 

Brandon Crawford was an MVP candidate in his 11th big league season. Belt's two best offensive years have been the last two. Ruf and Wade Jr. broke through last year. Dom Leone had a 1.51 ERA, and most of the bullpen wasn't far behind. 

The Giants have done a remarkable job of squeezing every ounce of production out of veteran players, and just about all of them had career years, or something close, in 2021. The easiest way for the team to take a big step back in 2022 would simply be for a lot of the individual players to take a small step back, and that wouldn't be a shock with a group defying traditional aging curves. 

The Giants had the oldest lineup in the big leagues last season and said at the end of the year that they wanted to get more athletic in 2022. With the exception of Thairo Estrada replacing Donovan Solano and Joey Bart filling in for Posey, that hasn't really happened. 

A Tougher Road

With a rare sweep at Coors Field in September, the Giants finished 15-4 against the Colorado Rockies, which was their most wins against a single opponent since 1965 ... until they returned home, swept the Arizona Diamondbacks, and finished 17-2 against them. That's a 136-win pace against two division opponents.

The Rockies swapped Bryant in for Trevor Story and are still projected to finish last in the NL West, but no matter what that roster looks like, the Giants probably aren't winning seven of nine at Coors Field again. As bad as the Rockies were, they still won nearly 60 percent of their games at home. 

The Diamondbacks again project to be bad, but they have the talent to have a decent rotation and old friend Mark Melancon should help what was an awful bullpen. Even getting 12 wins against each of these teams would be pretty strong, but it would be a big step down from 2021.

Flipping The Script

Do you know when the NL West was really won? It wasn't the final day of the season, it was all those nights when the Dodgers played into extra innings and somehow turned into the worst team in baseball. 

The Dodgers went 6-13 in extra innings and at the end of July, they were 1-11. For a team that talented, that should be impossible. For any team, really, it should be pretty close to impossible. 

The "ghost runner" leads to some strange results -- the 11th Dodgers extra-inning loss came on a bloop to left that scored the runner on second -- and sometimes all the game-planning in the world can't prepare you for the randomness of baseball. 

The Giants were only 10-9 in extras but went 31-17 in one-run games. Their great bullpen played a part, but the Dodgers had the second-best bullpen ERA in baseball and went 24-24 in one-run games. Again, a lot went right on the way to 107 wins, and the Giants probably can't rely on winning so many of the coin-flip games this season. 

RELATED: Five intriguing Giants prospects to watch this season

Missing Innings

The Giants have built a rotation with a lot of upside, and they were able to do it in large part because others were scared off by injury histories. Logan Webb and Anthony DeSclafani are maybe the only good bets for 30 starts, and that's fine. This team is built to take the best that each of the starters has to offer and then fill in the gaps when injuries or fatigue pop up.

But what if the gaps are huge? Alex Wood had a strong first season in San Francisco but threw just 138 2/3 innings, and he hasn't gone over 160 since 2015. Carlos Rodon's 24 starts last year were the second-highest total of his career and he had a shoulder issue late in the season. Alex Cobb has thrown 158 innings over the past three seasons. Webb, the Opening Day starter, has never been through a full MLB season. 

The front office built enviable pitching depth, but the path to the postseason will be a lot steeper if the depth options are counted on to fill in for 40 or 50 starts.

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