With one day to go until the latest Hall of Fame class -- if there is one -- is announced, Barry Bonds remains on the right side of the 75 percent threshold. But it still looks extremely unlikely that he'll finish there.
Bonds has been listed on 77.5 percent of the ballots that have been made publicly available on Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker, but he has only gained two votes among returning voters who have made their selections known. Last year, Bonds finished 53 votes shy of enshrinement and his percentage dropped 11.9 percent once full results were released by the Hall of Fame. Even a fraction of that drop would put him below 75 percent in his final year on the ballot and keep him from being voted in by the Baseball Writers Association of America.
With about half of the ballots having been released publicly, former Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz appears to be the only player with a chance of getting in. Ortiz is running at 84.5 percent and most projection systems have made it a coin flip when results are announced Tuesday afternoon. Roger Clemens (76.5 percent) is the only other player currently above the 75 percent mark needed for enshrinement, but like Bonds, he has always seen a massive dip late in the process.
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The news isn't any better for Tim Lincecum, who is on the ballot for the first time but needs to reach five percent to be included in 2023. Lincecum currently has six total votes -- including this writer's -- and is at 3.2 percent. Tim Hudson (2.7 percent) also is in danger of falling off the ballot after two years. Longtime Giants second baseman Jeff Kent is at 31 percent in his ninth of 10 years on the ballot.
The results will be announced on Tuesday at 3 p.m. on MLB Network, MLB.com and the Hall of Fame's Facebook page.
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